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August 22, 2012

University of Colorado Election Model Predicts... Romney Victory, & Obama Loses Almost All Swing States


Is this something? I don't know.

A state-by-state analysis of the presidential race conducted by two University of Colorado professors predicts that Mitt Romney will be our next president. The analysis, released today, by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver, is based on economic and other factors within each of the 50 states. This same study has correctly predicted the winners of the last eight presidential elections, starting with the 1980 election won by Ronald Reagan.

The model says Obama will win 218 EVs, and Romney will win 320. @conartcritic could not be reached for comment.

The authors of the study said an incumbent Democratic president loses advantages of incumbency when unemployment hits the level of 5.6 percent.

If the unemployment figure changes in Obama's favor, it could help him with some of the marginal 50/50 type states that Romney wins (by the model).

How much could it actually help him, though? It sure isn't going down to 5.6%.

And speaking of the economy: Paul Ryan knocks Obama's "imaginary recovery."

Video below. Here's some text:

"He said last summer was going to be the summer of recovery," Ryan said. "It's a summer later and it's still worse. He said that the private sector is doing just fine, we need more government. This is President Obama's imaginary recovery. It's not here."

He makes a big gaffe, though. He thinks he's going to be speaking to Biden in October, at the debates.

We'll see about that.


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posted by Ace at 08:52 PM

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