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July 13, 2012

Obama's Appeal Is Not Dwindling. It's Just Becoming More Selective.

Firstly, Gallup finds that the enthusiasm of young voters -- the percentage that say they'll definitely vote -- has fallen a full twenty points from 2008, from 78% to 58%.

Speaking of, Matthew Condinetti compares Obama to Spinal Tap. Where once he filled huge college football stadiums, his campaign is now bragging about... well, I'll let Condinetti tell you.

The most telling moment of the campaign this week was not Mitt Romney or Joe Biden’s speech to the NAACP convention, but President Obama’s Tuesday appearance in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Nor was it the content of Obama’s message that made his utterances noteworthy. It was the small venue: yet another community college. Now, Kirkwood Community College is no doubt a fine place, but Sports Authority Field at Mile High it is not. And one is unlikely to come across a better indicator of presidential shrinkage.

The White House took desperate pains to note that the president talked to an “overflow crowd.” What it did not mention was that an overflow crowd in a community college gym could not fill the seats in, say, the OSU stadium. There was a time when Obama regaled audiences of 30,000, 75,000, 80,000 people. Now he speaks to true believers at high schools. By the end of the campaign he may well find himself, like Spinal Tap, playing to a threadbare crowd at Themeland Amusement Park in Stockton, California (a city which, fittingly enough, is bankrupt)....

And speaking of his appeal becoming "more selective."

Having lost the broad appeal he enjoyed in 2008, he is making narrow appeals to particular voting blocs with the apparent aim of shoring up support and turnout. He's counting on Judis-Teixeira demographics to carry him to re-election.

To appeal to single women, he picked a fight with the Catholic Church by refusing a conscience exemption from the ObamaCare birth-control mandate. For Hispanics, there was the promise of lax immigration enforcement against illegal aliens who arrived in the U.S. as children. His "evolution" on same-sex marriage seemed designed to appeal not just to gays but also to young voters, whose attitudes on the subject tend to be liberal.

But these calculated overtures carry risks. In appealing to particular demographics, the president may be alienating other Democratic or swing voters....

To defend the black vote, Obama supporters have frequently appealed to fears of Republican racism.

...

There's a risk here too—that all the talk about racism will put off whites who voted for Mr. Obama because they thought electing a black president would help the country get beyond race.

Obama seems to have flip-flopped on the idea that elections should be about the big things, not the small things.



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posted by Ace at 10:04 AM

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