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Joe Biden Calls His Friends in the Mob and Has the Longshoreman Delay -- Not Call Off, Delay -- Their Strike Until After the Election
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May 09, 2012
Liberal Conventional Wisdom Starting to Twig On To AoSHQ Conventional Wisdom-- Obama Is an UnderdogWhen Harold MacMillan was asked what he most feared might derail his government, he famously, possibly apocryphally, said "Events, dear boy, events." Although campaigns and candidate quality (personality, charisma, authority) do matter, events -- actual facts -- matter a great deal more. Obama has bad facts, bad events. The only truly good event was capping bin Ladin, but bin Ladin had been isolated and cut off from Al Qaeda's actual governing leadership for years and years, thanks to Bush's manhunt for him. A good thing, true, but bin Ladin was in semi-retirement, watching porn all day in his squalid, dirty compound. And on the other side of the ledger, the bad facts? Just about everything else. Via the Captain, a liberal starts imagining the unimaginable. The three most recent national polls—Democracy Corps (D), Gallup/USA Today, and the Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll—underscore how tough a reelection campaign Obama faces and why it’s fair to call him an underdog at this point. He’s stuck at 47 percent against Mitt Romney in all three surveys, with the small slice of undecided voters tilting against the president. His job approval ranges from 45 percent (Democracy Corps) to 48 percent (Battleground). Those numbers are hardly devastating, but given today’s polarized electorate, they’re not encouraging either. And speaking of events -- there are, of course, a lot of unknowns lurking out there, ready to become known at any moment; and one strains one's imagination trying to think of unknowns which could suddenly spring up which help Barack Obama. Whereas one has little difficulty thinking of Sudden Events which would damage him further -- France and Greece, for example, imploding, while following policies which seem an awful lot closer to Obama's program than to Mitt Romney's. And why even go abroad searching for monsters? What if California or Illinois melts down? What if they default, and/or their bonds stop selling? The economy seems unlikely to improve dramatically -- indeed, it seems softening, worsening, deteriorating. It seems far more likely that, if the economy were to suddenly move from a slowly-degrading flatline, it would deteriorate precipitously, rather than suddenly improve markedly. A sudden 6% jump in GDP would help Obama... but that seems less likely than a -2% double dip of the recession. Neither are very likely at the moment, but the former seems fanciful while the latter seems like a genuine possibility. Even to the extent that election campaigns matter -- Is Obama's campaign a strong one? The [$25 million ad campaign talking up an improving economy and job growth] is itself is in search of a cohesive message. The first part underscores how severe the recession was, as a preemptive defense for why the economy hasn’t turned around faster. The second half argues that America is “coming back,” thanks to job growth over the past year. It’s that part that will prove to be a tough sell. Indeed, it was top Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg who advised the campaign in February that this is the type of message -- saying things are getting better when voters don’t agree -- that polls miserably “and produces disastrous results.” Obama's ads must, due to facts, remain a muddle -- it's bad, but it's getting better, not quite as bad as it could be. We must do better, because we cannot be satisfied with the horrible economy as it is, but who knows, it could be worse. And Romney's ads? Romney's ads will show no such nuance -- they will paint the economy as the worst economy since the Great Depression. A message which has the benefits of being arresting, dramatic, easily conveyed, lacking in complication and nuance, and true. Look at this, just one of many: By the way, Romney's had harder-hitting ads than that in this past year. And the Republican Governors' Association cranks out the best, horror-movie-trailer ads I've ever seen, and they can be expected to put out some doozies this year. Remember the "Remember November" ads? They'll be turned to 11 this year. (And I suggest Romney borrow some of the cinematic techniques the RGA is employing.) What's Obama's response to that going to be? That Romney is wallowing in unpatriotic negativism? Yeah, that claim, that an opponent is being "unpatriotic" and "betting against America" when he points out "negative" economic realities just doesn't sell. I've seen people try that for years. What it really sounds like is "Please stop saying that, it is absolutely catastrophic for my campaign fortunes." Back over at the Hot Air link, James Carville warns liberals that they have to get out of the liberal cocoon and "WTFU," or Wake The F*** Up. | Recent Comments
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Joe Biden Calls His Friends in the Mob and Has the Longshoreman Delay -- Not Call Off, Delay -- Their Strike Until After the Election
THE MORNING RANT: Democrats & Media, Who Keep Advising There Will Not Be a Winner Announced on Election Night, Oppose Georgia Ballot Integrity Measure Because It Will Delay Election Results Mid-Morning Art Thread The Morning Report — 10/4/24 Daily Tech News 4 October 2024 Everyone Loves The ONT Global Warming Cafe Our Liberal Media Betters: Make-Up Artist Alleges That Leftwing Country Music Has-Been Garth Brooks R*ped Her Liz Cheney Will Campaign With Kamala Harris In "The Symbolic Birthplace of the Republican Party" in Wisconsin Politico: Tim Walz Sometimes Has a Tendency to "Misspeak" Search
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