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May 09, 2012

Ace Of Spades HQ Decision Desk: Announcement Regarding North Carolina

Manning the Ace of Spades HQ Decision Desk, I have been tracking the elections since the beginning of the year, with a daily tracker on the sidebar for several weeks now.

I am pulling North Carolina off the swing state tracker and giving it to Romney. It may somehow be close via a convention bump, but President Obama is not going to carry it. Digging through turnout numbers and the yawning discrepency in some polling, it is clear that his narrow 14,000 vote victory from 2008 will neither be duplicated or expanded.

This is the second state the President will lose that he carried in 2008. Indiana was the first and conceded by his own pushers months ago. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district is going to Romney as well, so Romney has flipped 26 electoral votes, with six months to go.

I will be updating Wisconsin projections later this week reflecting the record-level turnout amongst Walker supporters. It will bounce about in the next four weeks, and updates at the DD will reflect that, but Walker has rewidened his lead and is currently favored to beat the recall.

Follow me on twitter or search the hashtag #AOSHQDD for polling and projection info as election season continues.


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posted by CAC at 03:58 PM

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