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February 18, 2012

It's Insane To Think There Will Be A Brokered Convention....Or Is It?

I don't see how it could happen, I don't think it will happen but this? It makes you wonder. If the "establishment" starts bailing on Romney.....

A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

If sitting GOP Senators start talking about this on the record then we will be in a whole different world. It's not a world any better than the one we are in now but very, very different.

What's Romney's problem? Well mostly it's that he has so many.

“To be elected president, you have to do more than tear down your opponents,” said Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former Romney supporter who on Friday defected to the camp of former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, the latest to emerge as an alternative to Romney.

“You have to give the American people a reason to vote for you — a reason to hope — a reason to believe that under your leadership, America will be better,” DeWine added. “Rick Santorum has done that. Sadly, Governor Romney has not.”

...

The candidate begins most mornings with a conference call with his two main message mavens, chief strategist Stuart Stevens and Fehrnstrom, and nearly a dozen other senior aides to discuss new lines for the candidate to try. Meanwhile, top supporters, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, call frequently with suggestions, while other friends and advisers e-mail him their thoughts.

All of that advice doesn’t always come out cleanly, said one senior adviser, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity.

“He’s got all the pieces up there and lets the computer in his head sort out what’s going to fit into what slot at any given moment,” the adviser said.

Every candidate gets messaging advice but as we learned with the whole "I don't worry about the poor" fiasco, Romney's instincts simply aren't conservative. He really doesn't have a default ideology that he can fall back on when new things come up. He simply tries to run through his mental lists of "messages" and tries to pick the right one. Sometimes he's right but often...not so much.

Could an open convention still happen if Romney freaks everyone out by losing Michigan?

Our friend handed us a printout of FEC deadlines for ballot access, with five of them circled and starred: California (March 23), Montana (March 12), New Jersey (April 2), New Mexico (March 16) and South Dakota (March 27). The point: Even after Feb. 28, it might be possible to assemble a Hail Mary candidacy that could garner enough delegates to force a CONTESTED convention (a different nuance than BROKERED, which implies that someone is in charge).

Under RNC rules, the delegate count builds slowly: just 15% before Super Tuesday, March 6; 19% through Super Tuesday (brings you to 34%); 17% in the rest of March (brings you to 51%); with 48% in April, May and June (21%, 12%, 15%).

It's no secret around he I can't stand Romney but Santorum would be an even bigger disaster. We simply don't have any good choices this time around. And no, a hypothetical brokered convention isn't going to save us when you consider the name most often mentioned as "the savior" is Jeb Bush.


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posted by DrewM. at 12:53 PM

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