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November 11, 2011

Cain Train...Derailed?

Via Allah, Cain's Iowa lead is down 11 points in 5 days in the same poll.

Over the course of a week, Herman Cain's lead in Iowa shrunk from 15 points to four over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to a new Insider Advantage poll of likely Republican caucus-goers in the Hawkeye State.

Meanwhile, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich moved ahead of Romney into second place in South Carolina, according to another Insider Advantage poll released Friday.

According to the Iowa survey, Cain leads the GOP field with 23 percent of the support, while Romney takes 19 percent. Gingrich comes in third with 15 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul garners 11 percent, and Gov. Rick Perry receives 9 percent. None of the remaining candidates polls above 5 percent, and 13 percent are undecided.

From occasional guest blogger and editor of The Transom (a must read daily email) Ben Dommenech, Cain still leads nationally in a CBS poll but with plenty of bad news for him.

Cain has lost support among women since late October. Then, he led among women, garnering 28 percent of their support. Now, his support among women is just 15 percent. He has also lost ground with conservatives, from 30 percent to 23 percent now. And there has been some movement among Tea Party supporters as well; their support for Cain has declined from 32 percent to 19 percent. Romney has lost support among men, while Gingrich's support among that group has increased eight points.

There's also a McClatchy-Marist poll out today showing Mitt Romney back in the lead nationally, Newt Gingrich rising to second and Cain falling to third.

The breakdown of the poll:

— Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, 23 percent;

—Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, 19 percent;

—Cain, the former restaurant executive, 17 percent;

Ron Paul is the only other candidate in double digits at 10%.

It would be interesting to see what hurt Cain more, the allegations themselves (which are shaky at best) or his brutal handling of them.

Either way, it's pretty clear that Cain's momentum has been broken. It's not to say that he's done but he's come back to the field. The next week or two will tell if this is his new plateau or if he slides further back towards where he was before his recent climb began in the Florida straw poll.

Clearly Newt is "Not Romney" this month. God knows there more than enough ammunition in his past to shoot him with. With about 7 weeks until Iowa, maybe he's timed it just right. As much as I'm ant-Romney and pro-Gingrich now, I'm not sure if that would be a good or a bad thing.

It's simply amazing this is the spot we are in. Simply amazing.

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posted by DrewM. at 11:25 AM

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