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August 16, 2011

Analysis: Don't Believe The Negative Spin on Texas' Unemployment Figure

Texas created more jobs than every state in the union. About 40% (or more, sometimes 48% is cited) of all jobs created during the recession were created in Texas.

Lately, for obvious reasons, liberals have sought to knock this fact down. They note that Texas' unemployment rate just recently began to rise, now at 8.2%, which is middle-of-the-pack as far as states go.

So, why is this? How does the state creating the most jobs have a middling unemployment figure?

Easy. Texas became known as a state where jobs were being created and, guess what, people started moving there. Over 700,000 people have moved to Texas in the past two years.

So while Texas has created more jobs than any state, the surge of newcomers has overwhelmed its job creation, for now, and goosed the unemployment rate to a eh 8.2%.

That blogger, Political Math, constructed a "What-If" chart -- what would Texas' unemployment rate be if it created jobs at its actual level, but if its population did not explode? That is, if its population remained constant?

Compared to other states, with the same assumptions (that is, all states' populations held constant, but figuring in the created jobs), this would be Texas' hypothetical unemployment rate:

Some states fare worse in this analysis, because, for example, they lost population, their people moving away, rather than gaining population.

Look at the top of the graph -- California's unemployment figure is deceptively helped by the fact that tens of thousands of people have deserted the formally Golden State. Add those job-seeking emigrants back in, and the real unemployment rate zooms.

Thanks to gg.

Oh! An explanation for liberal critics:

As Obama's real unemployment rate is deceptively reduced by the number of discouraged workers who have given up seeking work entirely, Texas' unemployment rate is deceptively inflated by the number of encouraged workers seeking opportunities in Texas, fleeing California and the other economic basket-cases.


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posted by Ace at 03:04 PM

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