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August 16, 2011

Gallup: Obama Back Down to 39% Approval, Up to 53% Disapproval

I had expressed hope that Sunday's 39/54 was a watershed moment, not an aberration, but the new "normal" for Obama.

This isn't proof yet, but with the last three days (of three-day rolling average polling) being 39/54, 41/52, and 39/53, it does suggest this is Obama's new mark.

And it may be all over for him, whatever the polls say. Europe has just slid back as close to a recession as you can get -- 0.2% growth -- and that suggests the US probably will slide at least close to one, too.

If there's a double-dip, it's all over.

Oh, and I was earlier looking for evidence that American patience has a specific time-limit, and that time limit is about 2 1/2 to three years. Maybe this is sort of evidence.

That’s what Obama’s 39 percent signifies. Republicans may not have to win it. Obama is on track to lose it.

Tracks can change. He’ll bump back into the 40s. And political junkies will watch every hard threshold for Obama, wondering: Is it his worst times or a harbinger of worse times?

Pundits sometimes turn Obama’s frown upside down. How remarkable Obama’s numbers are! In these hard times. This was said when he was in the mid-40s. It’s a misread of the physics of contemporary politics. We are in a hyper-partisan age. Democrats secure Obama’s floor. W’s approval never dipped below 50 percent among Republicans, even when only a fifth of independents and 5 percent of Democrats approved.

W’s approval rating did not fall to 39 percent until autumn 2005. Bill Clinton fell to 37 percent in his first term. But Clinton had a booming economy at his back by 1996. Obama surely will not.

That's about two and a half years after the start of the Iraq War. And even Bill Clinton's low point was probably about two and a half years after his inauguration, when the economy was growing, but no one seemed to believe that, because hiring and wage increases hadn't yet returned.

So maybe there is something to that.

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posted by Ace at 02:19 PM

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