Five Reasons O'Donnell Could Win

1. Coons could always self-implode. There is a small but nontrivial chance any politician will simply blow up. Odds are maybe 2% of that, but it's somethin'.

2. Coons isn't ideologically suited for Delaware himself. He's called a "bearded Marxist" -- he too may be too extreme for Delaware. Thus, we'd have a Republican too far to the right battling a Democrat too far to the left. Not great chances, but not an impossible longshot, either.

3. Coons may not be a great practical candidate, either. Mike Castle just wins elections -- until now -- so when he entered the race no more experienced Republican challenged him. And, I think, no serious Democrat rose to the challenge, either. Just Coons. (In fact, he was unopposed for the nomination -- apparently no one else wanted it, like O'Donnell versus Biden.) So he's not a superman, either.

4. O'Donnell could actually grow as a candidate. She's got a serious amount of work to do, and I don't know if she can do it. But until now she has been entirely on the defensive against attacks from within her party (which is something that has caused a lot of anger among her supporters). Now she's freed up from the constant defenses to do something besides all that. Will she rise? Probably. Enough? Probably not -- but who knows.

5. The Red Wave might even be bigger than we thought. Actually, I don't know about this one, because I was already thinking of an even bigger Red Wave than most people were and even my big Red Wave, in my mind at least, wasn't enough to do the trick. But with a little help from Coons, and a little help from herself... who knows.

If any mix of those above reasons pan out, the O'Donnell backers will look like geniuses, because there is no doubt, we will have traded a very light purple Castle for a very red O'Donnell. That will be some trick, a deep-red Senator in a blue state.

I don't think any of that will happen. That is why I have contended so hard against this, what I think is an emotion-based move.

But.

It could happen.

posted by Ace at 10:09 PM

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