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August 26, 2010

Tea Party Candidate: Hey, We Could See Some Good Election News, Like, F'r'instance, Nancy Pelosi Could Die

Did I say Tea Party Candidate? I meant serving Congressional Democrat. One of those... "Independent" Democrats we're suddenly hearing so very much about.

I'm not actually 100% sure of the context of the "Nancy Pelosi may die" remark because the totally professional reporter doesn't apparently think the context of the remark to be worth noting.

But that is the only context I can imagine where this makes sense.

Bright, who is is in his first year in Congress and facing a battle against Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby this fall, joked that Pelosi might lose her own election, decide not to run for the speaker’s job or otherwise not be available.

He suggested, jokingly he insisted to his audience, that Pelosi could fall ill and die in coming months. That remark drew laughter from the crowd.

Though he has a reputation as the second most independent member of Congress, he has been routinely blasted for voting for Pelosi to be speaker.

Meanwhile, at Politico (link unavailable) Democrats think their situation is worsening, and that the House is gone.

Can't fix it?

It's gone, MacReady. Gone.

“Democrats kept thinking: ‘We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,’” said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. “But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.”

A Democratic pollster working on several key races said, “The reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone.” His data show the Democrats’ problems are only getting worse. “It’s spreading,” the pollster said.

On the other hand -- the let's not soap each other's backs hand -- the Democrats enjoy some massive advantages in money and ground-game. Enthusiasm doesn't mean doodly-squat if you don't get your people to the polls, as we learned in the hearbreaker loss of Murtha's old seat.

Hours after the polls closed in a special election in Pennsylvania's 12th District earlier this year, Boehner was still predicting that businessman Tim Burns (R) would beat former congressional aide Mark Critz (D). Republicans' polling showed Burns would win. Their polling was wrong, and Critz is now a congressman.

Democrats who kept a close eye on the Pennsylvania polls detected the same excitement gap that Republicans saw -- Republican voters were much more enthusiastic than their Democratic counterparts. But Democratic polls also saw their voters come home in the race's waning days, and adjusted their targets accordingly. Republicans did not, resulting in a blown call and a self-deprecating examination of the party's polling techniques.

National Republicans maintain that the midterms won't be like the Pennsylvania special election, held in a district where few voters characterize themselves as independents. Indeed, Democrats have lost independent voters' confidence, and nationally, those voters are expected to break more toward the GOP. But models matter, and right now Democrats' models are inspiring more confidence than Republicans'.

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posted by Ace at 11:49 AM

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