Geraghty: I'm Can't Say How Many Seats I Think The GOP Will Put Up So I Will Let Ace Put Words In My Mouth
Ace: He's Saying the Over-Under Is 69

Don't get cocky, and all of that.

69? Why not. "Tea Baggers" and everything.

Over at Hot Air, a link to The Hill deciding that fifteen Senate seats are now in play and only two of them are GOP seats.

And one of those is pure, unbridled liberal optimism: Rand Paul made this race a little more interesting that I might have liked, but he's buttoned-up and straight-laced now and the Democrats have about as good a chance of taking red Kentucky in this red-wave year as I have of having sex with a woman before I turn 30.

Yes, Florida, Florida, Florida... But damnit, Rubio's a great candidate, textbook-great, and Charlie Crist is an apricot Fig Newton.

Correction: Wrong! Four Republican seats are listed; I didn't notice Ohio and Missouri.

Those last two are silly, especially Missouri, but Brandon in Baton Rouge is right, I missed those. Look, they're just keeping some of these seats in there, and high on the list of "likely takeovers," no less, because... well, the reality is just too awful to bear.

Also at Hot Air, that interview with Democratic-leaning poll-guru Charlie Cook, where he keeps saying the GOP will gain 35-45 seats but then keeps adding "But really, it will be more."

This is that tendency I mentioned, about people finding comfort in making less-dramatic predictions than they really want to make; Charlie Cook keeps doing this, where he says "officially 35-45" and then adds, "Oh, but I'm being very conservative there and the chances of it being more than that are a lot higher than it being less."

He sort of wants credit for both predictions; he wants you to notice his conservative, comfortably-small prediction, but he also wants credit when his bigger real prediction comes through.

Bloodbath, baby.

Disclosure: AllahPundit promised to see "Jersey Boys" with me on Broadway, with Karol as a buffer, if I wrote a post linking Hot Air twice.

Oh:

Old and Busted: Republicans hope 2010 will be as about as bad for Democrats as 1994.

New Hotness: Democrats begin hoping 2010 will be about as bad for Democrats as 1994, and only that bad.

posted by Ace at 02:10 PM

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