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March 20, 2010

Whip Count 3-20-10: 202 Yes, 214 No (Updated)

Since my last count yesterday, Pelosi got Sanford Bishop, Scott Murphy, Suzanne Kosmas, Brad Ellsworth, Allen Boyd, Tom Perriello, Dina Titus and John Boccieri. (Harry Mitchell announced again, but I already counted him in the "yes" group.)

She lost Jason Altmire, John Barrow, Lincoln Davis (officially; he was already headed that way), Peter DeFazio (a surprise from "yes" to "no"), Heath Shuler, and Harry Teague.

So Nancy has 199 "definitely voting yes" congresscritters. She is 17 short of the magic number. There are 214 publicly declared "no" votes. There are 18 undecided/undeclared congressmen left (including Cuellar):

Yes votes in November now undecided:
Tim Bishop (NY-1), Mike Capuano (MA-8 ), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Bill Foster (IL-14), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Bill Owens (NY-23), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ), John Tierney (MA-6).

No votes in November now undecided:
Brian Baird (WA-3), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Glenn Nye (VA-2), John Tanner (TN-8 ).

Of the maybe's left, I suspect enough have told Pelosi privately that they are voting "no" that she believes she has to peel apart Stupak's bloc to pick up the final handful of votes. That's why all the effort last night. Unfortunately, the Pro-Choice Caucus mutinied and Pelosi is running out of "maybes" to turn.

Stupak bloc of "no" votes remaining:
Bart Stupak (MI-1), Marion Berry (AR-1), Joe Cao (LA-2, Republican), Jerry Costello (IL-12), Henry Cuellar (TX-28 ), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9), Dan Lipinski (IL-3). Cuellar is thought to be "leaning yes", but he's refusing to take the President's phone calls.

My take: Pelosi doesn't have the votes. They did a great job yesterday not letting the panic show. Many believed that something was going to be worked out, and I think something probably was...until the Pro-Choice Caucus put its foot down.

Update (11:44AM): Bill Owens will vote yes. (h/t William Amos.)

So Pelosi has 200. She needs 16. There are 17 maybes left.

Update (11:47AM): Baron Hill will vote yes. (h/t Guy Fawkes). Also, I missed Tim Bishop's announcement yesterday. He's a yes. (h/t Patrick Archibold)

So Pelosi has 202. She needs 14. There are 15 maybes left.

Reminder: it will get closer before this is over. Change your pants and tighten up those sphincters. She'll be closer than 210 before this is over. Doesn't matter if she doesn't get the 216th vote.

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posted by Gabriel Malor at 11:21 AM

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