Don't Sweat the Slaughter Vote/Griffith Resolution outcome as a Proxy for Health Care

I'm gonna throw a quick post up to try to re-assure y'all that this is still a fight worth engaging in, even after the House endorsement of the tyrannical "Slaughter solution."

It is awfully tempting to think (and I'm sure the Dem Leadership will soon be using this as a talking point) that the 222 votes for Slaughter means that the Dems have the 216 they need for passage of the bill.

After all, if they are willing to brazenly BS you about the CBO score, why wouldn't they BS you about this?

The truth is that this really isn't a proxy vote for the bill, except on the "no" side. The 203 who voted against the rule will likely all be No's on the bill's "deem vote" too.

But the Yes voters? Not necessarily.

Why? Because on procedural votes, parties guard these outcomes jealously. To lose a procedural vote introduced by the minority is seen as a direct rebuke to party leadership, as it temporarily gives the minority the upper hand on setting the floor agenda.

And in the House, you never give the minority party an opening. In fact, the House is institutionally set up to frustrate the ability of the minority to do anything of significance. That's 99% of what the Rules committee is designed to do.

So, about the Yes votes.

Some of them will be No's on the final roll call. But they aren't going to go out of their way to kick their party leadership and their President any more than they have too.

So they are hedging their bets, in a sense. They've voted to keep the door open for Pelosi and Obama, even though they may ultimately vote against the bill.

Would it have been preferable for them to vote No on the rule? Absolutely.

I may write about this more in the future...but House members are essentially insecure critters.

And that's a good thing. They are more accountable to the people of their districts because of it. Whereas most Senators look in the mirror and see a future President, most House Members look in the mirror and worry that they are going to get primaried by the highest-profile car dealer (who often has greater name recognition due to the ads that run all the time on local shows)in their district.

This means that they aren't going to rebuke their leadership when they have what they perceive to be a free vote to "stand with their party."

And Slaughter was pretty much a free vote for these Dems. They've burnished their party creds, even if they decide to vote no.

(Granted, it's not much.....but House members are often afraid to buck their leadership any more than they have to do so.)

So take heart and keep the phone calls going. It isn't really a proxy vote (in the sense that Cloture votes on Senate filibusters often are).

It's a last chance for some of these guys to claim they are team players. And to still vote no.

Edit: Changed the title to make it clear that I was referring to this afternoon's vote on the Parker Griffith (R-AL) effort, rather than a direct vote on Slaughter's rule.

posted by Jack M. at 03:17 PM

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