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December 04, 2009

Polling News So Good Even Allah Is Giddy: Top Eight Most Vulnerable Senators? All Democrats
Kos' Own Poll: "Nothing Short of Cataclysmic"

And then lots of stuff about Democrats' denialism about "teabaggers." Because, see, the fact that the tea partiers are mostly on our side, and are energized and outraged and ready to crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama and his Democratic claque, is really a problem for us, because, see, all that enthusiasm on our side will scare America into voting against us.

The Democrats' Nutroots Wranger Markos Moutsopholes (whatever his name is, Kos) vigorously agrees with this analysis.

Oh wait, no he doesn't. In fact, he's warning of impending Democratic doom.

Democrats had known there was an “intensity gap” between angry conservatives in the Republican Party and the unexcited Democratic base, and in a midterm election, base turnout often determines who wins the night. Yet no one suspected it was this bad.

Nonpartisan pollster Research 2000 conducts a large-scale weekly poll for Daily Kos measuring voter sentiment toward key Republican and Democratic leaders and the parties (2,400 respondents, for a margin of error of 2 percent). Last week’s edition featured the typical generic congressional ballot test, and Democrats held a 37-32 advantage, not atypical compared to most other polling on that question. In its most recent polls, CNN had Democrats up 49-43, while Pew was at 47-42. And while Gallup bucked the trend, with Republicans up 48-44, those exact generic congressional numbers aren’t as important for the 2010 midterms as precisely who will turn out. And right now, it’s looking brutal for the Democrats.

For the first time, I had Research 2000 ask, “In the 2010 congressional elections, will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote or definitely will not vote?” The results were nothing short of cataclysmic:

Among Republican respondents, 81 percent said they were definitely or probably going to vote, versus only 14 percent who were definitely or not likely to do so. Among independent voters, it was 65-23. Among Democrats? A woeful 56-40: Two out of every five Democrats are currently unlikely to vote.

He then starts doing the stuff that I'd do too, were I him: It's not too late to turn it around, hey, anything can happen in a year, etc.

But... well.

Two in five Democrats say they're sitting next cycle out.

And some fraction of those voting are voting Republican.

"Teabaggers" are just killing this party. Damn them and their intensity and infectious enthusiasm! We don't need calls to arms right now; what we need is what the Democrats have: full-tub-of-Haagen-Dasz depression.

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posted by Ace at 09:54 PM

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