« Monk Series Finale Thread | Main | Overnight Open Thread - TGIF Edition (Mætenloch) »
December 04, 2009

Polling News So Good Even Allah Is Giddy: Top Eight Most Vulnerable Senators? All Democrats
Kos' Own Poll: "Nothing Short of Cataclysmic"

And then lots of stuff about Democrats' denialism about "teabaggers." Because, see, the fact that the tea partiers are mostly on our side, and are energized and outraged and ready to crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama and his Democratic claque, is really a problem for us, because, see, all that enthusiasm on our side will scare America into voting against us.

The Democrats' Nutroots Wranger Markos Moutsopholes (whatever his name is, Kos) vigorously agrees with this analysis.

Oh wait, no he doesn't. In fact, he's warning of impending Democratic doom.

Democrats had known there was an “intensity gap” between angry conservatives in the Republican Party and the unexcited Democratic base, and in a midterm election, base turnout often determines who wins the night. Yet no one suspected it was this bad.

Nonpartisan pollster Research 2000 conducts a large-scale weekly poll for Daily Kos measuring voter sentiment toward key Republican and Democratic leaders and the parties (2,400 respondents, for a margin of error of 2 percent). Last week’s edition featured the typical generic congressional ballot test, and Democrats held a 37-32 advantage, not atypical compared to most other polling on that question. In its most recent polls, CNN had Democrats up 49-43, while Pew was at 47-42. And while Gallup bucked the trend, with Republicans up 48-44, those exact generic congressional numbers aren’t as important for the 2010 midterms as precisely who will turn out. And right now, it’s looking brutal for the Democrats.

For the first time, I had Research 2000 ask, “In the 2010 congressional elections, will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote or definitely will not vote?” The results were nothing short of cataclysmic:

Among Republican respondents, 81 percent said they were definitely or probably going to vote, versus only 14 percent who were definitely or not likely to do so. Among independent voters, it was 65-23. Among Democrats? A woeful 56-40: Two out of every five Democrats are currently unlikely to vote.

He then starts doing the stuff that I'd do too, were I him: It's not too late to turn it around, hey, anything can happen in a year, etc.

But... well.

Two in five Democrats say they're sitting next cycle out.

And some fraction of those voting are voting Republican.

"Teabaggers" are just killing this party. Damn them and their intensity and infectious enthusiasm! We don't need calls to arms right now; what we need is what the Democrats have: full-tub-of-Haagen-Dasz depression.


digg this
posted by Ace at 09:54 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone famil ..."

Sandra F.: "[i]That means they're really being hard if Jimmy c ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "Are we now lactophilia intolerant? Posted by: buz ..."

Lost Shaker Assault: "I've been a chef, cook, and restaurant manager 35 ..."

Donna&&&&V sez: Sorry Tribe fans. Go Astros!: "Not entirely OT, here is a vid of some sane - and ..."

Cosmic Charlie: "Tina Weymouth was extraordinary ..."

buzzsaw90: "One word: lactophilia. And celebrity chefs. Pu ..."

filbert: "[i]"Diversity" by itself is valueless. A bucket of ..."

Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "508 Let's face it, diversity is weakness, straight ..."

colfax mingo: "Eromero, Not a poet, but not a bullshitter eith ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "It starts with lactophilia, then, the pudding. ..."

publius, the Persistent Poperin Pear: " Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone fa ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64