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October 15, 2008

Gallup: Three Point Race Among Likelies

7 among registered voters.

Using the HopeyChangey turnout model, which only takes account of someone's self-reported determination to vote (something that is inherently unreliable, which is why it's never used), Obama is up by 8.

That 8 is too high but I'm sure a lot of these cultists will vote for the first time, much more than usual. So the lead is... who knows? 5? 6?

The Zogster has it just shy of 4.

Rasmussen has it at 5, 50-45, pretty much where's it's been for a week.

Thanks to Scott.


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posted by Ace at 01:47 PM

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