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June 04, 2007

CBO: Amnesty Bill Would Only Reduce *Illegal* Immigrants By 25%; "We anticipate that many of those would remain in the United States illegally after their visas expire"

I would guess the CBO's estimate greatly underestimates the impact on illegal immigration, which would likely rise, not decrease at all. But it is helpful to know that the amnesty of 12-30 illegals, plus guest worker visas for an additional 200,000 workers per year, will only reduce further illegal immigrants by a paltry 25%.

At best.

The Senate's immigration bill will only reduce illegal immigration by about 25 percent a year, according to a new Congressional Budget Office report, Stephen Dinan will report Tuesday in The Washington Times.

The bill's new guest-worker program could lead to at least 500,000 more illegal immigrants within a decade, said the report from the CBO, which said in its official cost estimate that it assumes some future temporary workers will overstay their time in the plan, adding up to a half-million by 2017 and 1 million by 2027.


CBO's report said the new bill's effects on future illegal immigration were "uncertain." The analysts said past enforcement measures have "historically been relatively ineffective," but said but said new enforcement measures -- extra agents, prosecutors and investigators, fencing and workplace sanctions -- will have some effect.

I don't assume that myself. But it would be nice to genuinely increase enforcement and see what effects it actually might have before granting this massive amnesty, wouldn't it?

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posted by Ace at 10:56 PM

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