Michael Barone: Polls May Be Well Off

The guy lives and breathes this stuff. So he knows what he's talking about.

What's with the polls?

In 2004, the electorate that went to the polls or voted absentee was, according to the adjusted NEP exit poll, 37 percent Democratic and 37 percent Republican. In party identification, it was the most Republican electorate since George Gallup conducted his first random sample poll in October 1935.

But most recent national polls show Democrats with an advantage in party identification in the vicinity of 5 percent to 12 percent. Party identification usually changes slowly. Historically, voters have switched from candidates of one party to candidates of the other more readily than they have changed their party identification.

Over time, big changes in party ID can and do occur. When I started in the polling business, in 1974, national party identification was almost 50 percent Democratic and not much more than 25 percent Republican.

Since then, Democratic party ID has fallen, particularly in the South, where many voters who considered themselves Democrats found themselves voting Republican for president and, increasingly in the 1980s and 1990s, for other offices, as well.

Republican party ID has increased. But that's a process that took decades. If you could go back in history and conduct polls, I don't think you'd find any, and certainly not many, two-year periods when the balance in party identification shifted from even to having one party 12 percent ahead of the other.

Worth reading in full. He also notes that while highly partisan folks might view this as virtually a presidential election year, for most voters, it's just another midterm election, and that means lower turnout -- and the possibility that strong GOTV efforts can have a large impact.

Based on Polls and Best Guesses... Real Clear Politics predicts an 18 seat shift in the House, with a range of 7 to 37.

The great unknowns still lurk. Has the country really moved five to twelve points in party identification in just two years? Are conservatives really so dispirited they'll sit this one out? Or is the Republican GOTV advantage even more potent in a midterm election, with fewer voters going to the polls?

posted by Ace at 03:19 PM

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