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October 24, 2006

The Long-Anticipated, Much-Doubted Republicans-Come-Home Wave Begins To Swell

Pollster Dick Morris sends from his DickMorrisReports company:

06 ELEX: BACK TO TOSS-UP

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

October 24, 2006 -- The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate.

With two weeks to go, anything can happen, but it is beginning to look poss- ible that the Democratic surge in the midterm elections may fall short of control in either House.

Here's the evidence:

* Pollsters Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both show Republican Bob Corker gaining on Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee, a must-win Senate seat for the Democrats. Zogby has Corker ahead by seven, while Rasmussen still shows a Ford edge of two points.

* Zogby reports a "turnaround" in New Jersey's Senate race with the GOP candidate Tom Kean taking the lead, a conclusion shared by some other public polls.

* Even though Sen. Jim Talent in Missouri is still under the magic 50 percent threshold for an incumbent, Rasmussen has him one point ahead and Zogby puts him three up. But unless he crests 50 percent, he'll probably still lose.

* Even though he is a lost cause, both Rasmussen and Zogby show Montana's Republican Sen. Conrad Burns cutting the gap and moving up.

* In Virginia, Republican embattled incumbent Sen. George Allen has now moved over the 50 percent threshold in his internal polls. (He'd been at 48 percent.)

Nationally, Zogby reports that the generic Democratic edge is down to four points, having been as high as nine two weeks ago.

...


Why are Republican fortunes brightening?

The GOP base, alienated by the Foley scandal and the generally dismal record of this Congress, may have fast forwarded to the prospect of a Democratic victory and recoiled. They may have pondered the impact of a repeal of the Patriot Act, a ban on NSA wiretapping and a requirement of having an attorney present in terrorist questioning - and decided not to punish the country for the sins of the Republican leaders.

...

Right now, we would have to say that control of Congress has gone from "lean Democrat" to a "toss-up." And that's progress for the Republicans.

Eileen McGann co-authored this column.

Fred Barnes, especially, has been hyping this Last-Minute-Surge-of-Republican-Strength possibility for a while.

Dare to dream.

NOTE: All polls were conducted before wide exposure of allegations that a group of high-ranking Republicans have joined Slade Gorton in his notorious "Most Dangerous Game" human-hunting parties.

Look, I'm not defending human-hunt parties, nor of Congressional Republican leaders making trophies of human skulls and wearing them as outsized belt-buckles. And I don't like waking up every night to see Slade Gorton peering down at me, wearing a bloody leather apron and clutching a bone-saw, whispering to me "I will bathe in your blood before the Children of Babylon."

Admittedly: It's creepy. There's an ick factor there that can't be denied.

But let's be grown-up about this: Everybody does it.

And let's also be clear on something else: Nancy Pelosi is a hell of lot worse. You think that's her own skin she's wearing?

Slade "The Blade" Gorton

Vote Republican, or Dick Cheney and John Bolton "forget" to chain him up tightly after his evening feeding.


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posted by Ace at 04:30 PM

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