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October 23, 2006

The GOP Can Win -- If It Can Turn Out Like It's 2004

Looking at the Majority Watch map, and clicking on individual races, it looks like many Democrats lead by a fairly small margin -- four, six, or eight points in polls. Eight points is a decent-sized margin of victory in terms of actual votes -- but not in terms of polling.

A serious GOP GOTV campaign could erase those polling margins. It would be a narrow thing indeed -- to win, the GOP would need to hold all of its leaners, win all of the ties, win all eight of the Democratic-leaning contests, and then pick up five or so of the seats currently polling strongly Democratic -- but it could happen.

It's drawing to a backdoor inside straight, but such hands are occasionally made.

It's going to take social conservatives getting over their anger at the GOP for the Mark Foley scandal, fiscal conservatives getting over their anger over spending, and national-security conservatives getting over their frustration with Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, and simply vote for the lesser of two evils.

Not enthusiastically, but enthusiastically enough to wait in line for twenty minutes and pull a lever.

Unless there's a serious coming-home movement among dissatisfied members of the Reagan coalition, and soon, it's going to be bad. The choice is between a party which is somewhat incopetent and half-hearted about enacting policies you support, or a part that's more competent at enacting policies you oppose or even despise.

I'll take those moving clumsily towards my political goals rather than those moving deftly in the opposite direction any day of the week.

Michigan Voters-- Vote! Challenger Mike Bouchard has a decent shot at knocking off Debbie Stabenow and netting a GOP pick-up.

New Jersey and Maryland Voters, Too: Tom Kean is behind, but not insurmountably so.

Steele too. I'll give a special Ace of Spades "For the Greater Good of White Power" dispensation for voting for the brown person.

Besides -- how do we know Ben Cardin isn't brown too? Or Jewish? Or Asian, for that matter?

We can't be sure. Better not to take chances. It's better to vote for a brown person you know is brown than a possibly dangerous racial wildcard who might just be "passing" until he gets elected and pushes for his savage and/or crafty and scheming agenda.


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posted by Ace at 08:14 PM

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