GOP RIP?

America's feeling Blue.

Blue, Blue, Blue.

In all likelihood, the House is lost, and the GOP can now just hope to barely retain the Senate. There are only a few things that can change this.

It may be that many social cons and serious-on-the-war independents are reporting their disgust over the Foley affair, and general weariness with the GOP, in polls, but that when it comes time to pull a lever, they'll pull it for the R's. Even so, one imagines that many of the voters who turned out in droves for the GOP in 2004 will stay home this year.

The much-vaunted GOP advertising spree may change some votes-- though if it's having a big effect, it's not evident in the polls so far.

The GOP could also begin running hard on the one issue that undeniably cuts in their favor, and which animates voters -- immigration. But it's not really a national strategy, as Bush is opposed to his own party on this issue. So it's hard for local candidates to really get the unified-message-synergy on the issue.

The GOP needs some good news -- or a big scandal for Democrats (that the media is actually obliged) to cover -- fast. They don't seem to want to cover Harry Reid with the "flood the zone" coverage they're giving to Foley. With three weeks left, breaking good news seems less likely every day. Most of the good news -- economy, tough measures on terror, border fence, etc. -- is already in, and apparently isn't enough.

Which is no reason not to vote. Limit the damage. Right now there looks like there's going to be an awful lot of it.

posted by Ace at 02:30 PM

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