Tales of the GOP's Congressional Demise...[Jack M.]

appear to be overstated.

At least if one can give any credence to Zogby polls. Which I usually don't when taken alone. But since this one appears to mirror findings in serveral other polls (at least according to the Washington Times story I'm about to link) I suppose that lends some validity to Mr. Zogby's findings.

Plus, it just feels right. In my gut, I sense a tightening in these races. Or maybe that's just nausea at the thought of Pelosi, Conyers, Kennedy and Reid running the show.

In any event, here is the Wash. Times story that Drudge is hyping right now.

The key points? Glad you asked. They are:

Republicans appear to be gaining on the Democrats in the 2006 midterm campaign because of growing confidence in the economy, falling gas prices and President Bush's sustained political offensive on the terrorist threat, according to pollsters and campaign strategists. The most significant political movement in the past week or two has been in the battle for control of Congress. National preference polls on the so-called "generic ballot" question -- which party's candidate voters say they would choose -- show Republicans have narrowed the once-substantial lead Democrats held and are now trailing them by three percentage points, independent pollster John Zogby said Friday.

Emphasis added. Only a three point deficit? If that is in fact truly reflective of the Generic ballot, than, for all intents and purposes these races are tied as the Generic ballot question usually favors the Democrats.

Why is the GOP gaining steam?

The Republican Party's improving polls coincide with a number of positive developments on the economic front that Republicans hope will further lift their political prospects in November. The price of oil dropped to nearly $62 a barrel Friday from a high of $77 last month, as gasoline prices continued their descent to a national average of $2.62 per gallon, though many battleground states were reporting lower prices for regular. Some of the lowest averages included Iowa, $2.32; Indiana, $2.36; Missouri and Ohio, $2.25; Minnesota, $2.35; Michigan $2.37; and Kentucky, $2.34. As gas prices fell, the stock market was rising, with the Dow Jones industrial average soaring to 11,560 Friday, 162 points from its all-time high, that boosted worker pensions -- and a consumer confidence survey showed Americans were "in a decidedly more optimistic mood," the Ipsos poll reported Friday.

And price hasn't even hit $1.15 a gallon yet. Hell, if that happens, I predict that the GOP will pick up Stabenow's seat in Michigan.

Cowbell anyone?

Want to know what the market's think? Check out Tradesports' graphs. They both show that the smart money has moved to the GOP in recent days, with the GOP favored to retain both the House and the Senate.

The House:

The Senate:

And this doesn't even begin to factor in the Sith powers of Karl Rove, the misunderestimated Evil-Idiot-Genius-Savant powers of George W. Bush, or the well known "lefty fact" that Diebold is on our side.

I can't wait for November.

posted by Ace at 02:45 PM

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