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December 05, 2005

New York Times On The Economy: Doom, Disaster, & Depression

Looks like Pinch Sulzberger has ordered his reporters to start submitting a story-every-week about how bad the apparently "booming" economy (by their own admission, last week) really is.

We can expect one of these economic hatchet jobs every week from now until Novermber 2006. So get used to the form. Here, we'll just ignore all the postitive data and conduct an interview with a single sourpuss.

What's Ahead: Blue Skies, or More Forecasts of Them?

The nation's economic forecasters are all but unanimous in predicting that the coming year will not bring a recession. It isn't so clear, however, whether that forecast has any meaning.

Wall Street economists are notorious for insisting that all is fine even when a downturn is just around the corner. The few pessimists who regularly prophesize doom are only occasionally right.

Even the actual start of a recession does not always help. Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, spent much of early 2001 saying that a recession was avoidable. In fact, one had already begun.

Trying to predict recessions - an effort that drives much of forecasting - turns out to have little practical use. The more relevant question might be whether growth is likely to speed up or slow down in the coming year, and most of the signs, like still-high energy costs and a cooling housing market, are pointing to a slowdown.

Slowing economies matter because they often set the stage for recessions, and they usually drag down stock prices in any event. By the time a recession begins and job losses are mounting, stocks are frequently rising again....

4.3% GDP growth? Dow approacing new historic highs? Deficit falling by a $80 billion in one year due to rising tax receipts? Unemployment at 5.0% and falling?

akbar1.jpg
It's a trap!!!

Admiral Akbar should be the Democratic nominee in 2008. After all, he's got the military experience the liberals need to help convince the public they're not total weenies on defense.

As a bonus, he's a minority. At least I think he's a minority. Who knows.

Coincidence? According to Drudge:

SOURCE: Bush set to go on offense Monday re the economy; hit Dems for seeking to raise taxes ... Developing...

And, goodness gracious, the NYT is right there playing defense for them. What were the odds.


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posted by Ace at 12:19 AM

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