Four Elections in a Row, the Bureau of Economic Analysis Has Mis-Projected the Rate of Growth... Always In the Democrats' Favor

In '92, '96, 2000, and 2004, the BEA has overprojected the rate of GDP growth for the last quarter before the election when a Democrat was the incumbent, and underprojected the rate of growth when a Republican was the incumbent.

Granted, this is a tiny sample size. It's difficult to get animated about what could very well be a normal run of chance.

Still, it is interesting. I'm not ready to cry "Conspiracy!," but if one suspects, as I do, that the majority of bureaucrats working in Washington are Democrats (often of a liberal stripe), then one does begin to wonder, just a bit, if a partisan pessimism creeps into their analyses when a Republican is in office, and a partisan optimism helps goose the numbers when a Democrat is in office.

One of the mis-projections is trivial; just one tenth of one percent. But two others are substantial-- a half a percent, and one time (in 1992, amidst claims that George Bush the Elder had put the economy into the toilet for the foreseeable future), .7%.

Probably nothing to get excited about... still, it's an interesting little historical nugget dug up by a blogger, and it represents original reportage of a sort. So I'm happy to link it.

posted by Ace at 10:13 PM

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