Polls Are Made for Strippers and They Get Greasy and Slippery Around Closing Time

The New York Times admits that Republicans are 30% less likely to respond to polls at all.

And if a group disfavored by the media party refuses to answer at such high rates -- what is the skew within that group? That is, among the Republicans who do answer, is it the case that Republicans voting Democrat are the most likely "Republicans" to answer a leftwing pollster's questions?

I don't know. Seems likely to me, though.

Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh

🚨 UPDATE: New York Times just warned their blue wave final midterm polls are being flooded by white Democrats, with white Republicans answering **LESS THAN 2020**

"The persistence of this kind of nonresponse bias introduces the risk of a systematic polling error like those in 2016 or 2020."

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

Show up.

Make their worst fears come true.

I suppose it's also possible that Republicans aren't answering pollsters' phone calls because we're dispirited or ashamed of our votes for Trump -- but, of course, pollsters also predicted big wins for Democrats in 2024. NBC claimed that Kamala Harris would smoke Trump by 5 points.

CNN's Harry Enten has been warning Democrats that the polls routinely, persistently, systematically overstate Democrat vote-share by around 3.5% in every single election, and if you adjust current poll figures to reflect that, suddenly Democrat gains in the Senate vanish into gas like yesteday's chalupa from Brian Stelter's colon.

c Abbenante @EricAbbenante

Oct 30

Harry Enten looks over the 'spooky data' for the Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms:

Harry Enten: "They need to win in states that Donald John Trump didn't just win two years ago, but won by double digits.

Senate flips in states that the party lost by ten or more points in the last presidential election.

The number is 0 since 2011.

There have been times in which the polls actually suggested, hey, Republicans might actually lose in some of these Trump won states. And then it didn't happen. And we've seen it happen time and in time out.

GOP has beat the final Senate poll average by 4.1 points in states Trump won in the prior presidential election.

So if the past polling errors hold in these Trump one states, then all of a sudden Republicans are able to hold on to the United States Senate and with ease."

Wave goodbye, to the blue wave.

Communist front-group NBC has a poll that shows Republicans with a higher approval rating than Democrats, and higher approval on most of the main issues of the campaign, but you wouldn't know that from NBC's headline:

NBC News @NBCNews

A new national NBC News poll finds key groups that boosted Trump in 2024 are shifting toward Democrats ahead of Tuesday's elections.

What they mean is that some left-leaning groups that shifted towards Trump in 2024 are now shifting back to the Democrats.

Which is what I'd expect, and it is a problem.

But here's what they're not highlighting:

Ed Morrissey:

Pollsters know this better than anyone. How are they addressing their pending credibility crisis? Some, like NBC's pollster, have shifted sharply away from their blue-wave predictions. Their new data shows Republicans suddenly leading on all of the presumed big issues in the election -- the economy, immigration, and corruption:

Even on the unpopular Iran war, Democrats only lead by five points, and only by one point on inflation, AKA "affordability." It's a wash on "protecting democracy," even before respondents got to absorb Democrats' attempt to defraud voters in Alaska with The Two Dans Sullivan plot. The GOP has a two-point lead on the economy, a five-point margin on corruption, and an eleven-point lead on immigration despite the two-year hysterics Democrats and the media have pitched over ICE and deportations.

Democrats lead on inflation by a single point -- one single point -- and on Iran by 5%.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 05:20 PM

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