Poll Shows Biden Losing to Trump; Democrats Suggest It's Time for Biden to Drop Out of the Race, for the Good of the Party

A New York Times/Siena Poll finds:

Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as Mr. Biden's multiracial base shows signs of fraying.

President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.

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Across the six battlegrounds -- all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 -- the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.

There is no good news in the poll for Biden.

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden's policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump's edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters -- long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden -- are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

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In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply -- and similarly -- unpopular, according to the poll. But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

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Another ominous sign for Democrats is that voters across all income levels felt that Mr. Biden's policies had hurt them personally, while they credited Mr. Trump's policies for helping them. The results were mirror opposites: Voters gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for having helped them and Mr. Biden an 18-point disadvantage for having hurt them.

For Mr. Biden, who turns 81 later this month, being the oldest president in American history stands out as a glaring liability. An overwhelming 71 percent said he was "too old" to be an effective president -- an opinion shared across every demographic and geographic group in the poll, including a remarkable 54 percent of Mr. Biden's own supporters.

In contrast, only 19 percent of supporters of Mr. Trump, who is 77, viewed him as too old, and 39 percent of the electorate overall.

Concerns about the president's advancing age and mental acuity -- 62 percent also said Mr. Biden does not have the "mental sharpness" to be effective -- are just the start of a sweeping set of Biden weaknesses in the survey results.

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Voters, by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, said they better trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy, the largest gap of any issue. The preference for Mr. Trump on economic matters spanned the electorate, among both men and women, those with college degrees and those without them, every age range and every income level.

That result is especially problematic for Mr. Biden because nearly twice as many voters said economic issues would determine their 2024 vote compared with social issues, such as abortion or guns. And those economic voters favored Mr. Trump by a landslide 60 percent to 32 percent.

The findings come after Mr. Biden's campaign has run millions of dollars in ads promoting his record, and as the president continues to tour the country to brag about the state of the economy. "Folks, Bidenomics is just another way of saying the American dream!" Mr. Biden declared on Wednesday on a trip to Minnesota.

Voters clearly disagree. Only 2 percent of voters said the economy was excellent.

Voters under 30 -- a group that strongly voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 -- said they trusted Mr. Trump more on the economy by an extraordinary 28 percentage-point margin after years of inflation and now high interest rates that have made mortgages far less affordable. Less than one percent of poll respondents under 30 rated the current economy as excellent, including zero poll respondents in that age group in three states: Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Obama's campaign manager, David Axelrod -- the man who essentially invented Obama -- strongly, strongly hints that it is time for Biden to go.

David Axelrod @davidaxelrod

Nov 5

It's very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden's team says his resolve to run is firm.

He's defied CW before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party--not "bed-wetting," but legitimate concern.

The @POTUS is justly proud of his accomplishments. Trump is a dangerous, unhinged demagogue whose brazen disdain for the rules, norms, laws and institutions or democracy should be disqualifying. But the stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore.

Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?

He's saying "Get Out" and he's not even saying it very politely.

Joe Biden will almost certainly not be the Democrat candidate for president.

And yes: Other Democrats will do better than Biden. Even Kamala does better than Biden.

I know Trump's partisans are all crowing but I continue being unimpressed that Trump edges the most unpopular Democrat president in recent history.

A generic Democrat beats Trump by eight points. Yes, there's no such thing as a "generic Democrat," and all Democrats will have baggage that the "generic Democrat" does not, but eight points is a good lead. And this just shows that Biden is the worst possible Democrat candidate, because Biden has to run on the Biden record.

Other candidates don't. Oh, they won't repudiate Biden's agenda, which is their agenda. But they'll all claim they'll "govern" wiser and get better results out of lightly modified Democrat agenda. How, they won't say.

And they won't have to. Sometimes logical-minded people just cannot grasp how completely illogical other people are. It may seem absurd to you that someone could run on pretty much the same agenda as Biden and just promise "I'll put a Commission together to figure out how to govern better than Biden did" and have people believe this, but this is the kind of stupid, retarded bullshit the American public routinely believes.

And if the Democrats nominate anyone younger than Trump, the Democrats and the media will suddenly discover that old men are physically frail and experience declines in cognition. And you might say "There's no way they can just all flip on a dime in one second like that."

Oh yeah? Watch them.

A lot of it comes down to who people "like," and people just do not like Trump. People who really like Trump seem to have trouble accepting that their opinion is a minority opinion. Even in this poll, even against Biden, Trump still can't claim a majority through the swing states.

Do not count on the Democrats keeping Joe Biden as a doomed candidate just out of allegiance to one flawed man. That's something only Republicans do.

Democrats will not run Joe Biden if he looks like a loser. They will ruthlessly act to win.

We won't. We will continue marching along the path to a 2024 loss.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 05:40 PM

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