Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors: "We Now Believe the Chances of a Recession, Starting in the Second Quarter of 2022, Have Risen to 60%"

OUT: Barack Obama's third term.

IN: Jimmy Carter's second term.

The Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors told Maria Bartiromo that he thinks the GDP for the first quarter is going to come in at near zero or just below it, which sets up the likelihood of meeting the definition of "two quarters of zero or negative grown in a row" of a recession in the second quarter.

So we're looking down both barrels, one barrel loaded with "recession and contraction," the other loaded with "skyrocketing inflation."

Should be fun.

Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Kevin Hassett warned on Thursday that inflation is "out of control" at a time when the economy "is headed towards a recession."

...

Hassett noted on Thursday, shortly after the release of the [new report on a record 7.9% year-over-year inflation], that "wages aren't keeping up with prices," which means "real incomes are going down."

He warned that the next CPI report will reflect "way worse" data.

"The really, really big price spikes started to happen in March," Hassett told host Maria Bartiromo on Thursday.

Ukraine is a leading exporter of corn. They plainly will not have much, if any, of an export harvest next year. They're also huge exporters of wheat; Russia and Ukraine together produce one third of the world's wheat.

The disruption in two absolute bedrock commodities will convulse the global economy.

Hassett went on to point out that "all that kind of stuff is going to make the March number way, way worse" than the February data.

"The Fed hasn't even started tightening yet and we've got this runaway inflation and a weakening economy," he said, adding that he believes "first quarter GDP [gross domestic product] is looking like it's going to be negative."

A recession refers to a contraction in GDP activity, or economic output, for two consecutive quarters.

Hassett argued that one reason why he believes "the odds of recession are getting above 50%, is that you got a couple negative quarters in a row, then you 're in a recession and the first quarter is low enough right now, in the real-time data that we have, that it's plausibly negative or at least really close to zero and so that's like the first half of the start of a recession."

As he mentioned, the Fed is considering raising interest rates to combat Brandon's runway inflation which will reduce whatever growth the economy is managing.

Brandon has left us with nothing but terrible choices. And I'm pretty sure he'll wind up choosing all terrible choices simultaneously.

Well-played, NeverTrump.

And all so you could crawl your way back to influence and TV gigs! My, what statesmen and patriots you all are!

Update: Biden is "sick" of economists claiming that inflation is caused by an increase in the supply of money chasing a static amount of goods. That's Voodoo Economics!

Hey, Brandon -- Start pressuring your illegal, captive Social Media Monopolies to censor and deplatform anyone spreading the Russian Disinformation that the value of money is determined, as the value of all things are, by the iron law of supply and demand.

Maybe get National Review to start writing Editorials supporting this newest censorship campaign ordered up by the government.

If you're claiming Brandon's repeated rounds of trillion plus "stimulus" had anything to do with devaluing the dollar, You're Driving With Putin!

Speaking of, is anyone at National Review ever going to condemn their fellow neocon-turned-Democrat Bill Kristol for constantly conspiring with the left to get the right deplatformed?

Or does National Review only police the right now?

posted by Ace at 03:30 PM

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