Exiles from Blue Enclaves - A Case Study [TJM]

So, it sounds like the kind of people who reject lawlessness and don't want to live under perpetual lockdowns aren't, on average, Democrats.

Twitter user TimDCpolitico took Florida's voter rolls from March 31 of 2020 and compared them to the latest figures. The results, he says, are "jaw-dropping," and I can't think of a better way to describe them.

Out of over 14 million registered voters, last year Democrats held the edge with 37.38% of registrations compared to the GOP's 35.28%. (The remaining four million or so - around 26% - were independents or members of minor parties.)

Democrats held a two-point advantage, but higher Republican turnout has made the state safely red in the last two presidential elections.

So, that's what it was a few months before the election where Trump won Florida by just under 4%. What has happened since?

Hoo-boy! The pandemic effect on FL voter registration has been.. jaw-dropping

Since 3/31/20:
+274,503 R
-51,995 D
66/67 counties becoming redder
R's overtake D's for first time in state history@karol @HotlineJosh @guypbenson @MZHemingway @ReyAnthonyFL @Bryce__L @FloridaGOP pic.twitter.com/b8qWzLT8Og

— Tim (@TimDCpolitico) January 4, 2022

What does this mean? Why is it that some place like California could possible fail to recall Gavin Newsom last year after his dictatorial actions? How could someone live through the destruction of New York City and say, "I like everything that's going on, but I need to move to Florida, where DeathSantis is prowling the streets of every Florida community for people to stab to death with COVID, to feel safe?" How could that person decide that Florida is the place to move?

A lot of comparisons get made between how Colorado went blue in the 90s and 00s. That move wasn't brought on by a sudden decline in standard of living in California. It matched up with an increase in the standard of living in California brought on by the rise of Big Tech.

People moving to Colorado from California to turn it blue were doing it through a calculated effort to turn a red state blue from a place of strength. It got detailed in a book titled The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado (and Why Republicans Everywhere Should Care).

This movie that started early last year is materially different, and it has been materially different from the start.

The sudden downfall of the American metropolitan center brought on by Soros backed prosecutors who put a greater effort into letting violent criminals go than trying to keep the city anything like safe is an active move that is getting people to flee for their own safety. Cities are never going to be wholly blue. They will have Republicans and conservatives who have to live there for an assortment of reasons. When things get too much, which group are more likely to leave at all? And, in the case of progressives who love the ideas but not the execution, where are they going to go?

It's not a binary situation for progressives who suddenly feel unsafe in their precious New York borough. It's not stay in NYC or move to Florida. If you've bought into the idea that Republicans who won't mask up when alone in their car are trying to kill you, do you easily choose to move to a red state? It'd be easier to move to another blue enclave or even just moving into the suburbs of your current blue enclave. They still get the Democratic governor they think so highly of without the fear of getting killed in the streets by criminals or MAGA hat wearing covid vectors.

If you're a conservative, though, it becomes much easier to say, "I'm tired of all of this, I'm moving," and then move to a place like Florida. You've had to bite your tongue for years about how you liked Trump, and now that the place you grew up in is completely falling apart and you've decided to say goodbye to it forever, you just go towards those who think like you do.

Of course, this is talking in generalities. We've all heard anecdotes of progressives announcing that they're moving to "dumb country" because it's the only place they can get a job, but I assert that these are exceptions to the rule. I think the above stats from Florida help prove that.

Red states are going to get redder, and blue states are going to get bluer as the country self-segregates over the next few years. It's going to help none at all that blue states and enclaves are going to never let go of their emergency covid powers and squeeze their decreasing populations as hard as possible for as long as possible.

posted by Open Blogger at 02:50 PM

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