New Poll Shows Newsom On the Edge of Being Recalled
Update: Ballot and Envelope Seem to Have Been Designed to Faciltiate the Most Fraud Possible

Among likely voters, 52% say he shouldn't be recalled; 48% say he should be.

But the poll's margin of error is +/- 4%.

And polls have been greatly oversampling Democrats for at least a decade.

And non-Democrats are motivated to collect this son-of-a-bitch's scalp.

Yet another poll of the Gavin Newsom recall election shows a close race and a serious enthusiasm problem on the Democratic side.

The CBS News/YouGov poll, conducted among 1,856 Californians between Aug. 6 and Aug. 12, shows that 54% of registered voters oppose the recall while 46% support it, but the race tightens to 52% opposition and 48% support among likely recall election voters.

A Berkeley Institute of Government Studies/Los Angeles Times poll found a thee-percentage-point race when weighted for turnout, a necessary adjustment for pollsters as every poll released so far has shown Republicans are paying more attention to the recall and thus are more likely to vote.

This new CBS poll found that 86% of Trump 2020 voters said they "definitely will vote" in the recall election, compared with just 75% of Biden 2020 voters who said the same. Only 16% of Trump voters are following the recall election "not very closely" or "not closely at all," and that figure rises to 32% among Biden voters.

The poll also found that Newsom has positive approval on COVID-19, wildfires and the drought, but negative approval ratings on crime and homelessness. On homelessness specifically, Newsom has just a 40% approval rating.

Newsom's strategy is to tell Democrats to leave the second question -- the one about who will replace Newsom, if he's recalled -- blank.

This move is intended to give Democrats a stark Newsom-or-Nothing choice, not allowing them to consider replacing him with another Democrat.

But this is letting Larry Elder lead on that question. On the second question, Elder leads 23% to a Democrat getting 13%. 46% of people say "no one" or "not sure" about the replacement name.

How do you know Newsom's in trouble?

Because Democrats just filed a federal lawsuit asking the federal government to overturn/cancel California's own recall election laws.

A federal lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California seeks to stop the Gavin Newsom recall election from happening as scheduled on Sept. 14.

The suit, filed by voters R.J. Beaber and A.W. Clark, alleges that the recall election is unconstitutional because it denies pro-Newsom voters equal protection of the law guaranteed by the Fourteenth Amendment. This argument was made by Berkeley Law School Dean Erwin Chemerinsky, who wrote a New York Times op-ed last week arguing that because Newsom "can receive far more votes than any other candidate but still be removed from office," it violates a "core constitutional principle that has been followed for over 60 years: Every voter should have an equal ability to influence the outcome of the election."

"[California's recall process] flies in the face of the federal legal principle of 'one person, one vote,' and gives to voters who vote to recall the Governor two votes -- one to remove him and one to select a successor, but limits to only one vote the franchise of those who vote to retain him and that he not be recalled, so that a person who votes for recall has twice as many votes as a person who votes against recall," the lawsuit states.

That is... idiotic.

A Hawaiian judge will probably order Democrats to be given more votes. (As if they don't already vote multiple times.)

The suit seeks to have Newsom's name added to the list of replacement candidates, giving him two chances to win.

The lawsuit seeks to either stop the recall election entirely or add Newsom's name to the list of replacement candidates, which would almost assuredly result in Newsom remaining in power even if he is recalled on question one.

Update: From Tami, this California voter notes that the mail-in ballot and envelope for recall just happens to allow anyone holding the envelope to see the vote to keep or get rid of Newsom.

Allowing postmen, vote-collectors, and Democrat fixers to simply discard thousands and thousands of votes to recall Newsom.

It just worked out that way!

Swearsies!

And they're already stealing ballots:

posted by Ace at 05:00 PM

| Access Comments