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July 12, 2021

81 Million Votes [Dave in Fla]

I was wrong.

You were right, and I was wrong. I did not think that the Democrats could steal enough votes to overcome Trump’s surge in voters, not without being caught doing it.

Some of you are very invested in this admission of error, so I want to make it clear right up front, I was wrong. In the final week before the election, I removed my daily concern of massive fraud, because I no longer believed it was possible on the scale needed for Biden to win.


Now you be honest. If the week before the election, you had been told with certitude that Trump would increase his vote total over 2016 by 11,231,329 votes, would you have believed that he could lose? While I didn’t know the exact number, I was tracking this enthusiasm surge, which is why I discounted the magnitude of fraud possible.

There is no question that Joe Biden is not a charismatic candidate. He inspired enthusiasm in only those who were going to vote Democrat regardless of the candidate. Attendance at his rallies could be counted on two hands, a phenomenon that continues today, despite being President.

This makes Trump the most unique candidate in political history, worldwide. To accept the official narrative of the 2020 election, we must accept that Donald Trump was the singular motivator to convince 26,616,737 new voters, a 21% increase over 2016, to turn out to vote. In the middle of a pandemic where everyone was locked in their homes.

He inspired 11,231,329 new voters to show up at the polls to reelect him. And he disgusted 15,385,408 new voters so much that they voted against him.

Yes, there is math ahead, I apologize.

As I have said, I take polls with a large grain of salt. Which is why I started looking at numbers that are factual. I pulled into a spreadsheet the vote tallies for every state from 2016 and 2020 and started doing some analysis to see if I could figure out where Biden’s 81 million votes came from. These are numbers that cannot be massaged by sample bias in polls, these are reported vote totals. Facts.

At first blush nothing looked too out of the ordinary. Trump increased his vote total in states that he won. Biden also increased his vote total over Clinton’s numbers. Trump’s increase in red states was larger than Biden’s increase in the same state. This is expected.

But then I did some math to look at the rate of increase. Not just how many votes a candidate received, but what percentage growth over 2016 that increase represents in the state. Let me use Idaho as an example.

In 2016 Trump received 409,055 votes while Clinton received 189,765. In 2020 Trump received 544,119 votes to Biden’s 287,021, easily winning the state. Nothing seems odd, Trump’s total increased by 145,064 while Biden’s by 97,256. But the curious number is the rate of increase. Trump’s total increased by 35.46% while Biden’s increased by 51.25%. This difference of 15.79% between the rates means that while Trump won the state, and had a larger increase than Biden, Biden actually picked up ground towards establishing a national vote total.

I ran this same analysis against all 50 states.

Biden’s rate of increase was higher than Trump’s in [b]44 states[/b].

In most states, especially red states, this advantage in rate of growth was significant, 9%, 12%, 15%, 20% in Wyoming. Averaging across all 50 states, including the 6 states where Trump’s rate was higher, Biden averaged a growth rate advantage of 8.97%.

As I said, there were 6 exceptions to this rule, California, Illinois, New York, Hawaii, Nevada … and Florida.

Trump’s rate of growth in California was 33.96% compared to Biden’s 26.92%.

Florida was the only state Trump won where he grew his vote totals by a higher percentage than Biden did.

Now there are two states that were under a 1% growth advantage for Biden, Arkansas (0.35%) and Ohio (0.86%), but almost everywhere else Biden dominated this metric by a significant percentage.

What does this mean?

In my mind there are two possible scenarios.

Scenario A: The narrative is correct; we are just a combination of sore losers and conspiracy nuts. Trump was so toxic to so many people, that while he encouraged more people to vote for him in 2020 than in 2016 in all 50 states, he also inspired nationwide hatred and more new voters showed up to vote against him in almost every state (except the liberal bastions of California, Illinois, and New York).

Scenario B: Some number of votes for Biden were injected into the system, and it occurred nationally, not just in blue states or metropolitan areas. While the injection could be Dominion, I find that unlikely since this occurred in almost every state and only 30 states use their products. I think it is more likely that this was an abuse of lax absentee voter rules, due to Covid. I think that the Democrats put the word out (and offered bounties) for the collection and submission of absentee ballots. The use of unmonitored drop boxes and the elimination of signature matching enabled this to be implemented nationally.

To test my theory, and see if I could find a rational baseline, I applied the same math to the 18 bellweather counties that got the election “wrong” this year. What I found was that on average the “Biden rate” was still higher in these counties, but the advantage was much smaller, 1.59%.

How many votes did Biden really get?

This is where I speculate and get uncomfortably close to the unskewing model I tried to develop in 2012. I can see how many more votes Biden got, and where he got them. But I don’t believe the results, is there a way to estimate a more realistic number?

I tried 3 models to see what would happen.

The 1.59% cap model – Here I set a cap on Biden’s growth rate in a state to equal the advantage I found in the bellweathers. Any growth advantage above 1.59% is adjusted down to 1.59%. With this model, Biden’s vote total is 78,067,789 and Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The 7.5% limited adjustment model – In this model I reduce Biden’s growth advantage by 7.5% (approximately the value the state average is above the bellweather average). The exception is I don’t do the adjustment in any state where the advantage was less than 1% (8 states). In this model Biden’s vote total is 78,185,354 and Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The 7.5% adjustment model – In the 3rd model I reduce Biden’s growth advantage by 7.5% across the board, regardless. With this model Biden’s vote total is 76,327,660 and Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

I have more data I want to share, including a closer look at some curious states, but I am reaching movie review length, so I need to wrap up. We can play games with various models to try to estimate results, but if you want to know where Biden got 81 million votes, the answer is from everywhere.

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posted by Open Blogger at 01:19 PM

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