TRUMP WINS FLORIDA | Main | CNN Walks Back Its Virginia Call
November 03, 2020

Trump Takes Florida. Is Georgia Next?
Did Fox Blow Its Virginia Call?!

Called by Newsmax.

Update, from my Florida polling expert: Trump won in 2016 by 1.2%. My expert predicts a 3+% win this time. He points out that no matter who wins in Florida, it's a razor-thin margin.

Except this time.

If Trump has extended his lead in Florida -- and remember, supposedly all those seniors in Florida were going to turn on him due to covid -- it seems likely he's keeping or extending most of his other 2016 vote levels.

A commenter pointed out that the NYT "needle" had Trump with a 78% chance of winning Georgia.

Which was supposedly a solid prospect for a Biden pick-up. Supposedly it was tight as a tick. Anyone's ballgame.

If Georgia is a fairly solid Trump win -- we'll have to see about that -- what the hell do we say about the polls?

More:

The New York Times just increased Trump's chances of winning the whole election from a mere 7% to 29%.

Anyone else having a feeling of deja vu?


More: A friend tells me that Chris Wallace is "spinning like a top," and greets the news that Trump is pounding Biden in Florida by saying, "Oh well, Biden didn't need it anyway."


Update: Jordan Schaechtel has gone county by county through Virginia, and says Trump is outperforming his 2016 level everywhere.

@JordanSchachtel

Going through the county by counting numbers in Virginia, it certainly seems like VA is IN PLAY. What am I missing? Trump is outperforming his 2016 numbers (lost by 4.9%) everywhere.

Trump is currently outperforming his 2016 totals in Northern Virginia (deep blue area) by a significant margin


And he's crushing it outside of the beltway. Way higher % than 2016 (he lost VA in 2016 by 4.9%)

Will Fox have to retract its Virginia call?



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posted by Ace at 08:29 PM

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