TRUMP WINS FLORIDA | Main | CNN Walks Back Its Virginia Call
November 03, 2020

Trump Takes Florida. Is Georgia Next?
Did Fox Blow Its Virginia Call?!

Called by Newsmax.

Update, from my Florida polling expert: Trump won in 2016 by 1.2%. My expert predicts a 3+% win this time. He points out that no matter who wins in Florida, it's a razor-thin margin.

Except this time.

If Trump has extended his lead in Florida -- and remember, supposedly all those seniors in Florida were going to turn on him due to covid -- it seems likely he's keeping or extending most of his other 2016 vote levels.

A commenter pointed out that the NYT "needle" had Trump with a 78% chance of winning Georgia.

Which was supposedly a solid prospect for a Biden pick-up. Supposedly it was tight as a tick. Anyone's ballgame.

If Georgia is a fairly solid Trump win -- we'll have to see about that -- what the hell do we say about the polls?


The New York Times just increased Trump's chances of winning the whole election from a mere 7% to 29%.

Anyone else having a feeling of deja vu?

More: A friend tells me that Chris Wallace is "spinning like a top," and greets the news that Trump is pounding Biden in Florida by saying, "Oh well, Biden didn't need it anyway."

Update: Jordan Schaechtel has gone county by county through Virginia, and says Trump is outperforming his 2016 level everywhere.


Going through the county by counting numbers in Virginia, it certainly seems like VA is IN PLAY. What am I missing? Trump is outperforming his 2016 numbers (lost by 4.9%) everywhere.

Trump is currently outperforming his 2016 totals in Northern Virginia (deep blue area) by a significant margin

And he's crushing it outside of the beltway. Way higher % than 2016 (he lost VA in 2016 by 4.9%)

Will Fox have to retract its Virginia call?

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posted by Ace at 08:29 PM

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