Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

Biden Calls It Quits for the Day -- at 9:26am | Main | Is Biden Really Ahead at All?
September 24, 2020

Catholics are Abandoning Trump! [TheJamesMadison]

That's what a EWTN News/RealClear Opinion poll wants you to believe, but their numbers...well...they're suspect at best.

"In a poll of 1,212 likely Catholic voters that 53 percent favor Biden, compared to 41 percent who prefer Trump."

Wow, that sounds bad, huh? Especially when you remember that Trump won the Catholic vote 52-45 in 2016 versus Hillary. That's quite a drop.

But then you read further and find this nugget:

"The poll found that 50 percent of respondents voted for 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton while 45 percent voted for Trump, a sign that Biden has widened the gap among Catholic voters."

Wait...what? Their poll doesn't reflect the 2016 election in the least. The last time Republicans only got 45 percent of the Catholic vote was 2008. Is that at all likely to happen this year?

It's an assumption that seems...dubious to me.

They're operating on the assumption that their polling was truly random of the Catholic vote and that it accurately reflects the overall makeup of the 70,000,000 Catholics in America. Considering the problems that polling firms have with response rates, it seems doubtful to me that they didn't apply any weighting. In fact, it seems like they weighted the poll to greatly favor Biden.

Now, you can't just unskew a poll (it increases the margin of error on every data point instead of correcting anything), but I can look at this and say, "This poll was designed to be garbage."

They weighted the poll to favor Biden and, lo and behold!, Biden has a lead!

Another point:

"Trump leads among white Catholic voters by 5 percentage points, the poll found. Among Hispanic Catholics, Biden has a commanding 63-31 lead."

That Hispanic number is very close to the 2016 results of 67-26 for Hillary, but the white Catholic number is way, way different. Trump won that cohort 60-37, by 23 points, and it's evaporated to 5?

That's either a massive white flight from Trump (right after the Access Hollywood tape in 2016, by the way), or the result of a faulty assumption about how whites are abandoning Trump in droves.

My theory is that polling firms are simply oversampling white Democrats.

This whole poll lends itself more credence to my belief that polling firms have built in a white flight factor for the election that works against Trump into their models. It's always seemed like a dubious assumption, but they're running with it into September.

digg this
posted by Open Blogger at 01:50 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Piper: "I don’t know about China’s military, b ..."

runner: "Can Joe withdraw his withdrawal? == To sav ..."

Archimedes: "[i]One of the military problems that goes back and ..."

Seems Legit: "I thought word on the street (twitter and instagra ..."

polynikes: "The Left can do what they do because they still ha ..."

Black JEM: "326 324 But their power projection capability isn' ..."

Jonah: "385. Those here who subscribe to NetFlix. CEO just ..."

Northernlurker , wondering where his phone is : "We apparently have no rules, so who knows. Are you ..."

JackStraw: "Something fun while ace slumbers. https://tinyu ..."

Anonymous Rogue in Kalifornistan (ARiK): "234 114 ‘ Every answer from Kamala will beg ..."

ShainS -- Trump 2024, Now #1 With a Bullet! [/b][/i][/s][/u]: "It's so unlike the dems to use their invalids in s ..."

Piper: "388 Can Joe withdraw his withdrawal? Posted by: N ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64