Is Trump Now the Clear Favorite to Win the Presidency in 2020?

Short answer: Yes.

Even this useless mope is starting to get it:

NeverTrumper Becket Adams sees it too:

At this rate, President Trump is going to win reelection in 2020. Easily.

You heard it here first.

Trump has a money advantage, a unified party, excellent polling numbers, and a booming economy. He commands total loyalty from a fanatically enthusiastic base, and he is a gifted, tireless campaigner. Most importantly, however, the president's Democratic opposition is hopelessly dysfunctional and incompetent, beset on all sides by bitter infighting, unfocused messaging, toxic identity politics, and a total unwillingness to understand what motivates the president’s support.

Democratic dysfunction, probably more than anything else, is what will win Trump a second term in office. Their general ineptitude, coupled with the likelihood that Democratic leaders back a creature of the establishment to lead a halfhearted, poorly executed challenge to the president’s reelection campaign, will make it such that Trump will have to try to lose in November.

Kyle Smith sees Groundhog Day coming, because the Democrats refuse to ever confront reality:

November 4, 2020. Early morning. The clock radio flips from 5:59 to 6:00. And the radio plays, "I Got You, Babe." You know it’s coming: the Groundhog Day election.

The Democrats are heading for a replay of their worst day because, like the rude and dismissive Bill Murray character Phil Connors, they can't relate to their fellow citizens. Oblivious, they’re doomed to make the same mistakes until they learn something.

Get ready to see a lot of stuff you've seen before. First there will be denial: "Uh-uh. No way. Can you check the numbers again? That can't be right."

Desperate for evidence, the Dems will move on to the next phase: Voter fraud! Diabolical machine errors! Russian hacking! All of this will be given a thorough scourging. Any wisp of a rumor of a hint of a shred of evidence that any of these things happened, regardless of whether any of them happened on a scale sufficient to determine the outcome, will be the subject of screaming headlines and glaring chyrons.

While the process of refusing to accept the integrity of the balloting continues, though, there will be marching. Protests on Fifth Avenue! Huge gatherings in Washington! Hey, kids, join Resistance II: Attack of the Clones. Every Saturday for two months there will be huge, meaningless rallies...

Impeachment failed? No worries. Try the same stuff again.

Six months ago, I was pretty worried that Trump would be defeated. A month before impeachment, I became reasonably confident Trump would win. Maybe it was the continued good economic news plus taking out al-Baghdadi and Suleimani.

I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it, but at this point I think Trump is at least a 55% favorite to win, maybe 60%.

posted by Ace at 12:22 PM

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