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January 17, 2020

WSJ: Can Trump Earn Black Support?

They mean, above the 8-10% that represents the floor of black Republican voteshare.

This doesn't seem likely to me, but who knows. Anything above 10% starts to become a problem for Democrats. Anything above 20% means they cannot win, period.



Biden, Sanders and Warren would say these new minority jobs fell like manna from heaven. The workers getting them may credit the president.

By Daniel Henninger

This unlikely straw has been in the political winds recently because in three opinion polls--Emerson, Marist and Rasmussen--President Trump registered about 30% support among black voters.

Asked to respond by InsideSources.com, former Hillary Clinton adviser Joel Payne said: "I have a better chance of jumping center for the Celtics tonight than Donald Trump having 30% support in the African-American community." He may get the call.

The reason this unlikely 30% number breaks the seals in Democratic heads is that for years it has been a rule of thumb in politics that if black support for Republicans ever reached 20% of the total vote, a Democratic presidential candidate would not be able to win, ever.

...

Last Friday, stories on the December jobs numbers noted that the unemployment rate of 3.5% was at a 50-year low, with the unemployment rate for African-Americans and Hispanics hitting historic lows, both under 6%. In a 2015 speech on the economy, Hillary Clinton talked about the jobs landscape then: "A quarter of young black men and nearly 15% of all Latino youth cannot find a job." Those numbers are much better for them now. They know it, and their voting parents and grandparents know it.

What will determine the outcome of the election?

Events, my dear boy. Events.

Of course, this may all come to nothing if AllahPundit's newest conspiracy theory, that Trump is directing his Mob Torpedo Rudy Guiliani to put the button on people, turns out, for once, to have some basis in reality.


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posted by Ace at 06:02 PM

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