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September 16, 2019

Democrats Write Off the White Working Class, Figuring They Couldn't Possibly Do Worse With Them Than They Did in 2016.
They're Wrong.

An editor for the Cook Politico Report tweeted this morning that the Democrats are whistling past the graveyard when they run against the white working class.

Here's why the "let's win without working-class whites" mentality doesn't hold water for Dems. That demog comprises 45% of all eligible U.S. voters, but:

61% in Wisconsin
61% in New Hampshire
56% in Michigan
56% in Minnesota
56% in Pennsylvania
47% in North Carolina

Good luck.


Dems' backslide w/ these voters is the main reason IA (66%) and OH (60%) have already exited stage right off the EC battleground, and why a Dem nominee who performs even worse w/ them could risk losses in ME (66%), NH (61%) or MN (56%).

Dems' path to beating Trump absolutely depends on retaining the gains they made in diverse, college-educated burbs - the kinds we saw in 2018 & #NC09.

But even a slight drop among white non-college voters could negate all of it, given the demog's size & geographic distribution.


Much of the analysis I'm seeing on this site assumes there's no more room for Dems to fall w/ white non-college voters, who are simply a "lost cause."

In fact, Dems have an awful lot more room to fall w/ them, and that's especially true in many of the most critical EC states.

Moreover, the notion that voting behavior is polarized to the point that there aren't any swing/persuadable voters left isn't based in reality.

Not only did we see above-average swings from '12 to '16, Dems wouldn't have gone +40 in '18 without converting lots of '16 R voters.

The bottom line: Dems don't need to win a higher % of the WWC than in '16 b/c 1) it's declining as a % of voters and 2) Dems have made robust gains among college whites.

But Dems *can't* afford to backslide much further & hope to win MI/PA/WI etc. And avoiding that isn't simple.

The Democrats think they can make up for losses in the White Working Class with gains in the White #WokeAF Class.

But real-life isn't Twitter. I keep trying to tell these lunatics that, but they don't believe me.

Last month Politico had a similar story about a demographic with some overlap with the white working class-- the rural vote, which Hillary Clinton lost 2-1 in 2016, and which the Democrats just might lose worse in 2020.

"Right now, no one is building those bridges," Mellman continued. But "if you can move rural voters, even a few points, it becomes possible to win in states you cant otherwise win."

...

Jeff Link, an Iowa-based consultant who is advising Focus on Rural America, the progressive group that paid for the plane circling the Iowa State Fair, said that if candidates are "talking about who is using what bathroom, were not going to get there with rural voters..."

Last week, polling showed that the Democrats had completely lost their 2018 advantage in favorability:





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posted by Ace of Spades at 03:16 PM

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