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October 29, 2018

Politico: Florida's "Blue Wave" Is a Surprising Shade of Red

I sure hope Republicans don't hold the House. Why, that could result in Democrat nervous breakdowns and further spirals into lunacy.

It might also result in Democrat donors' checks to NeverTrumpers drying up suddenly.

It would just be terrible!

RED VS. BLUE -- As of Sunday morning, Republicans had cast about 43 percent of the total pre-Election Day ballots and Democrats had cast about 40 percent. The GOP advantage in voted ballots: 2.7 percentage points. At this point in 2014 (eight days out in the last midterm), Republicans were ahead by 7.6 points, and the GOP led by just 0.23 points in 2016. In recent days, Democrats have closed the gap (they trailed by 9.2 on Oct. 15) and at this rate might beat out Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots cast by Friday. As noted previously, we track ballot returns by party to get a general sense of partisan intensity (so this isn't about independents).

THE YOUNG PEOPLE WILL ...STAY HOME? -- Remember all that talk of how "the young people will win" and come out in force in Florida, especially after the Parkland massacre? So far, it's not happening. Voters between the ages of 18-29 are 17 percent of the registered voters in Florida but have only cast 5 percent of the ballots so far. They tend to vote more Democratic. Meanwhile, voters 65 and older are 18.4 percent of the electorate but have cast 51.4 percent of the ballots. And older voters tend to vote more Republican.

THE WHITES WILL ... VOTE HEAVILY -- In looking at votes by race, whites (who also tend to vote more Republican) are crushing it. Non-whites (who vote heavily Democratic) aren't. So far, white people have cast 72.7 percent of the pre-Election Day ballots, even though they're 63.3 percent of the registered Florida voters. African-Americans have cast just 10.4 percent of the ballots, but they're 13.3 percent of the registered Florida voters. Hispanics have cast just 11.7 percent of the ballots, but they’re 16.5 percent of the electorate. The black turnout numbers should change after we get statewide numbers from Sunday, the first of two "Souls to the Polls: days for after-church voting. In Jacksonville's Duval County (a GOP-leaning county where a majority of Democrats are black), a strong early vote gave Democrats an edge of 493 votes over Republicans.

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posted by Ace of Spades at 04:51 PM

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