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May 16, 2018

RCP Average of Generic Congressional Ballot Polling Down to 5.2

The Blue Wave is looking gentler by the week. By November, the once imposing Tsunami of Tsuris of might more resemble the trickle of an adorable kitten relieving herself on a sugar cookie shaped like a daffodil.

So, is there going to be major Democratic win in the House? There still might be -- there are a lot of #FakeNews cycles between now and November -- but certainly the Democrats would rather have a 13 point lead than a 5.2 point lead (and falling).

By comparison, the big Democratic takeover in 2006 was preceded by an 11.5 point lead in polling, which only translated into an actual 7.5 lead in counted votes. I don't see any reason to think that current polling overstates Democratic support any less than it did in 2006 - and I think the Shy Republican effect actually increased.

What will it take to give the Democrats a +23 in net House seats won? I don't think they're going to manage that trick on a 5.2 point polling lead which might very well turn out to be a 2 point vote lead.

Some other speculations:

The Washington Post:

After months of confidence that public discontent with President Trump would lift Democrats back to power in Congress, some party leaders are fretting that their advantages in this year’s midterms are eroding amid a shifting political landscape.

Driving their concerns are Trump’s approval rating, which has ticked upward in recent weeks, and high Republican turnout in some recent primaries, suggesting the GOP base remains energized. What’s more, Republicans stand to benefit politically from a thriving economy and are choosing formidable candidates to take on vulnerable Democratic senators.

One of their biggest sources of anxiety is the Senate race in Florida, where some Democrats fear that three-term Sen. Bill Nelson has not adequately prepared to defend his seat against Gov. Rick Scott, a well-financed former businessman handpicked for the race by Trump. Scott and Nelson are close in early polls.


Trump’s approval is now at the highest point it has been all year, measured by Gallup in early May at 42 percent, a five-point increase from the start of 2018. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control Congress has shrunk, from 10 points in December to just six now, according to a Washington Post average of recent quality polls.


"I think anyone who was proclaiming victory a couple of months ago was premature," said Rep. Daniel Kildee of Michigan, who is a member of the leadership team of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "I think the president's standing obviously has some impact."


"Peace and prosperity's a pretty good platform," said Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Some local Democrats are nervous about the general election.

The Washington Examiner:

Enthusiasm for Democrats in the upcoming fall elections appears to be waning, especially among younger and black voters, as confidence in President Trump's handling of the economy and national security firms up, according to a new national survey.

The latest Zogby Analytics polls, provided to Secrets, revealed that the public trusts Trump more on the economy and national security, a finding that is likely to increase his value on the campaign trail for Republicans.

When asked "Who do you trust more?" on the economy, it was Trump over Democrats 41 percent to 35 percent, and on national security the president again led, 40 percent to 38 percent.

Added to the poll's other findings that support for Democrats is down among millennials, blacks, and so-called Walmart and NASCAR voters, it would appear that Trump is back in favor among voters and that the ballyhooed "Blue Wave" is dissipating.


Since January, support for Trump among African Americans has increased 8 percent.
Democrats lost more than 10 percent since January among voters aged 18-50, 14 percent among Millennials aged 18-29.

African American support for Democrats has dropped 20 percent since January.

Remember when the media all cried at once that that polls showing increased support for Trump by blacks was #FakeNews? Well, I don't know if I trust Zogby that much, but here's another pollster finding similarly.

The Hill:

Each day, the impending electoral "blue tidal wave" gets upgraded on the Hawaiian scale of electoral wave strength. Every special election, no matter how small, is inflated to an epic scale that "spells disaster" for the president and the party he commandeered in 2016.

Just one thing stands in the way of this electoral disaster of biblical proportions.


The writing is simply not on the wall for a Democratic blow-out. The president's approval rating has been consistently higher than Obama enjoyed at the same point in his presidency.

This is a good point -- the Washington Post missed this. They pointed out that Trump's approval rating was "historically low" for a first term president. I guess they forgot to compare his rating to Barack Obama's level of support -- which was similar.

Economic news has been staggeringly good. The unemployment rate is at a 44-year low. The Democrats have no coherent message. The NRA is flush with cash following this year's extremist anti-gun rhetoric. And the RNC has 40 million dollars more than the "dead broke" DNC.

Speaking of the Democrats not having any coherent message -- the Democrats have been faulted for running on nothing but Russia Russia Russia, which seems more and more like a John Brennan illegal political op against the American Democratic process.

So now running to their defense are their stenographers in the online leftist media, claiming Ohhhh, the Democrats totes want to talk about their agenda, whatever that is, but it turns out the only thing their enemy the Cable News Networks want to talk about is Russia!

This Daily Beast piece actually pushes the idea that the Democrats are being screwed by their leftist fellow #Resistance fighters at CNN and MSNBC, because you can't get booked on those channels to talk about "health care," only Russia.

The article fails to note that Republicans have it rather worse there, because not only can they not get booked to talk about their issues, but only to defend against Democrat/Fusion/Brennan information operations.

Look at this fucking bullshit:

Throughout the spring and early summer of 2017, congressional Democrats put together a comprehensive legislative and messaging plan to serve as the party's foundation for the 2018 midterm elections.

It centered around running against the concentration of economic power--chiefly within the pharmaceutical industry--and an ambitious, multi-faceted approach to enhancing conditions for workers both within and outside the workplace.

Anyone want to bet that the email this guy was sent by Democrats contained those exact words, "ambitious, multi-faceted approach"?

The title was a bit cookie-cutter-- "A Better Deal"-- but the document was the result of numerous stakeholder meetings, strategy sessions, and late-night conferring.

And they were all ready to trot this ambitious, multi-faceted approach a year ago but then someone, not sure who, but maybe Hillary Clinton and Adam Schiff, began the Russiagate narrative and Democrats in government assisted with constant leaks to keep the bullshit info op alive.

For the past year, this has been the media landscape confronting Democrats.

Again, not a word for the media landscape confronting Republicans.

But pity the poor Democrats who are invited on CNN and MSNBC to only talk about Republican treason!


Although Democrats lament their inability to compel cable news to care about topics other than Russia, they don't begrudge the programming itself.

Yeah, I'll bet they don't.

digg this
posted by Ace of Spades at 12:26 PM

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