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May 16, 2018
RCP Average of Generic Congressional Ballot Polling Down to 5.2The Blue Wave is looking gentler by the week. By November, the once imposing Tsunami of Tsuris of might more resemble the trickle of an adorable kitten relieving herself on a sugar cookie shaped like a daffodil.
So, is there going to be major Democratic win in the House? There still might be -- there are a lot of #FakeNews cycles between now and November -- but certainly the Democrats would rather have a 13 point lead than a 5.2 point lead (and falling). By comparison, the big Democratic takeover in 2006 was preceded by an 11.5 point lead in polling, which only translated into an actual 7.5 lead in counted votes. I don't see any reason to think that current polling overstates Democratic support any less than it did in 2006 - and I think the Shy Republican effect actually increased. What will it take to give the Democrats a +23 in net House seats won? I don't think they're going to manage that trick on a 5.2 point polling lead which might very well turn out to be a 2 point vote lead. Some other speculations: After months of confidence that public discontent with President Trump would lift Democrats back to power in Congress, some party leaders are fretting that their advantages in this year’s midterms are eroding amid a shifting political landscape. Enthusiasm for Democrats in the upcoming fall elections appears to be waning, especially among younger and black voters, as confidence in President Trump's handling of the economy and national security firms up, according to a new national survey. Remember when the media all cried at once that that polls showing increased support for Trump by blacks was #FakeNews? Well, I don't know if I trust Zogby that much, but here's another pollster finding similarly. Each day, the impending electoral "blue tidal wave" gets upgraded on the Hawaiian scale of electoral wave strength. Every special election, no matter how small, is inflated to an epic scale that "spells disaster" for the president and the party he commandeered in 2016. This is a good point -- the Washington Post missed this. They pointed out that Trump's approval rating was "historically low" for a first term president. I guess they forgot to compare his rating to Barack Obama's level of support -- which was similar. Economic news has been staggeringly good. The unemployment rate is at a 44-year low. The Democrats have no coherent message. The NRA is flush with cash following this year's extremist anti-gun rhetoric. And the RNC has 40 million dollars more than the "dead broke" DNC. Speaking of the Democrats not having any coherent message -- the Democrats have been faulted for running on nothing but Russia Russia Russia, which seems more and more like a John Brennan illegal political op against the American Democratic process. So now running to their defense are their stenographers in the online leftist media, claiming Ohhhh, the Democrats totes want to talk about their agenda, whatever that is, but it turns out the only thing their enemy the Cable News Networks want to talk about is Russia! This Daily Beast piece actually pushes the idea that the Democrats are being screwed by their leftist fellow #Resistance fighters at CNN and MSNBC, because you can't get booked on those channels to talk about "health care," only Russia. The article fails to note that Republicans have it rather worse there, because not only can they not get booked to talk about their issues, but only to defend against Democrat/Fusion/Brennan information operations. Look at this fucking bullshit: Throughout the spring and early summer of 2017, congressional Democrats put together a comprehensive legislative and messaging plan to serve as the party's foundation for the 2018 midterm elections. Anyone want to bet that the email this guy was sent by Democrats contained those exact words, "ambitious, multi-faceted approach"? The title was a bit cookie-cutter-- "A Better Deal"-- but the document was the result of numerous stakeholder meetings, strategy sessions, and late-night conferring. And they were all ready to trot this ambitious, multi-faceted approach a year ago but then someone, not sure who, but maybe Hillary Clinton and Adam Schiff, began the Russiagate narrative and Democrats in government assisted with constant leaks to keep the bullshit info op alive.
Again, not a word for the media landscape confronting Republicans. But pity the poor Democrats who are invited on CNN and MSNBC to only talk about Republican treason! ... Yeah, I'll bet they don't. | Recent Comments
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What An Ice Boner Cafe Quick Hits Beyond the Valley of the Libs of TikTok Amazing Long Essay on the Disinformation War The National Security Deep State Is Waging Against Us by Lee Siegel at Tablet Shawn Fleetwood and Mollie Hemingway: Voter Suppression Is Very Real. It's Just That It's the Democrats Are Making Sure Republican Strongholds Don't Have Enough Ballots for All the Republican Voters. Down With The Restrict Act, a Patriot Act for Americans' Speech Rand Paul: Anthony Fauci Lied About Retiring. He's Still Working for the Government, For Protection Against an Indictment. The Treasoners Club: The Democrat Party All But Admits It Has Absorbed the Government Into It And Is Using It to Destroy Their Political Foes THE MORNING RANT: A Little Bit of Good News Search
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