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December 12, 2016

Ex-Post-Facto Pats On The Back All Around! Nate Silver Calls The Election!

And blames James Comey's letter to Congress for the drunken neurology patient's loss. I'm not sure how he arrives at this conclusion, because he seems to be basing the analysis on polling that shows late deciding voters breaking strongly for Trump, and correlating this with Comey's letter. But as he should know, correlation is not causation. Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would've won before FBI letter

Notice that the voters breaking for Trump in the last week vary wildly from state to state. That seems odd. And one would think that this strong shift toward Trump should have been noticed by somebody...somewhere. Even Nate Silver's last prediction claimed a 71.4% chance of Clinton winning. So who were these voters? The ones who didn't show up in any polling the last week before Election Day, but miraculously appeared to be polled after Trump's victory?

posted by CBD at 02:11 PM

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I'm not sure how he arrives at this conclusion, because he seems to be basing the analysis on polling that shows late deciding voters breaking strongly for Trump, and correlating this with Comey's letter. But as he should know, correlation is not causation. Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would've won before FBI letter Notice that the voters breaking for Trump in the last week vary wildly from state to state. That seems odd. And one would think that this strong shift toward Trump should have been noticed by somebody...somewhere. Even Nate Silver's last prediction claimed a 71.4% chance of Clinton winning. So who were these voters? The ones who didn't show up in any polling the last week before Election Day, but miraculously appeared to be polled after Trump's victory? posted by CBD at 02:11 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Axeman: " Has Dying Joe managed to beat the crap out of Tap ..." Ann: "New post up ..." wth: "Where did all of the water in Waterworld come from ..." Ann: "Wut? They have a first amendment right. They d ..." 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