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July 25, 2016

Trump Takes the Lead in Two Post-Convention Polls

CNN:

The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

Morning Consult:

In the national poll, conducted from July 22 through July 24, Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton by 4 points, a sizeable swing from the past week, when the former secretary of State was clinging to a 2-point lead. In a three-candidate scenario including former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee pulls in 10 percent of the vote, and Trump still leads Clinton by 4 points.

It's a popular thing among NeverTrumps to disclaim any responsibility in this election by saying "Trump is doomed anyway." It's a comforting way to evade making any hard choices. I know, because I said it myself four months ago when I said I wasn't going to say anything to help Trump, because he was doomed anyway, and I might as well keep my virtue.

But he could win. I still think he's disfavored to win (though I'm less confident of that now), but this idea that NeverTrumpers are enamored with -- that opposing Trump is an absolutely free choice with no downside consequences whatsoever -- appears to be a bunch of babytalk.

That doesn't mean anyone is obligated to help a man he or she considers unfit for office and a bad person besides. But the various Twitter-generated slogans exist to arrest thought, not spur it.

This is a serious choice and should be considered seriously, not simply by stringing together a series of Twitter argumentative memes that substitute for thought.


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posted by Ace at 11:36 AM

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