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March 04, 2016

Trump Holds Slim Lead Over Cruz in Kansas

They vote tomorrow. Trump 35, Cruz 29.

Some people question if a six point lead is "slim." I think it is, especially in a multiparty race where votes can move fluidly from someone (like, say, Kasich) to someone with an actual chance.

In addition, Trump tends to underperform his polls by a bit, and Cruz tends to overperform his, sometimes by a fairly good amount. In Texas, for example, Cruz had a nine point in lead in the RCP average; he won by something like 17.

Cruz's ground operation is top of class, as is his voter microtargeting outfit.

Obviously that's pre-debate.

By the way, I'm going to phone it in for the rest of the day, more than usual. Long days on Tuesday and Thursday, and we have a clutch of primaries tomorrow.

I'm going to put up open threads and stuff.

Cruz announces the openings of ten campaign offices in Florida, by the way.


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posted by Ace at 03:19 PM

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