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February 17, 2016

Shock Poll: Ted Cruz Takes Lead In *National* Polling


Now before some say "A lot of polls say the opposite" -- yes they do. Most polls still show Trump out ahead by something like 32 or 35.

And yes, this could be an outlier.

But certainly this is different news, even if it's wrong.

This is a WSJ/NBC poll, the first completed entirely after the South Carolina debate. Several polls came out since then, but they included results from some days before the debate.

This poll is the first with all days after it.

So here are the numbers:

Cruz: 28%

Trump: 26%

Mario: 17%

Kasich: 11%

Carson: 10%

Bush: 4%

A head to head number puts it at Cruz 56, Trump 40, and Mario winning by almost as much. (Trump beats Jeb, though.)

Now, I can already hear some shouting "Total bullshit." Hey, I get that. I doubt this poll myself.

Still, I'm posting it for three reasons:

1. It is my commitment as a blogger to tell you guys the absolute truth, day in, day out, without fear or favor.

2. It's an easy-peasy blog post that I can write in five minutes and then take an hour off knowing the comments will be busy.

3. The tears of Rubes supporters taste like strawberries and sex.

So, those three reasons. Mostly, reason 2 and 3.

Caution: One of the pollsters suggests that this poll might be too fresh on the heels of the South Carolina debate. It's possible that people got freaked out by Trump, then went to Cruz, but have since then, perhaps, processed this new information and drifted back to Trump.

He says the numbers might "snap back." Or maybe they won't.

Or, of course, he suspects his poll is simply wrong and is trying to create a plausible excuse if the numbers turn out to be different than this survey found. He can just say, "Oh our numbers were right, but they 'snapped back' afterwards."

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posted by Ace at 05:13 PM

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