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January 30, 2016

Final Iowa Polls Thread

Information coming soon.

Iowa Poll by @jaselzer:
TRUMP 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush/Fiorina/Huck/Kasich/Santorum 2
Not sure 2
Jan 26-29
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) January 30, 2016

Write up here.

On the Democrats' side, it's Hilary 45%, Sanders 42%. Too close to call.

However, Ann Selzer (who did the poll) says this is somewhat deceptive, and Hillary is stronger than her three point lead would suggest.

Only one in three likely Democratic voters in the survey are first-time caucus-goers, who break decidedly toward Sanders. That compares with 60 percent in the final pre-caucus survey of 2008, when a wave of young voters and new participants helped Barack Obama overpower Clinton in Iowa.

Sanders needs a surge of new voters to win, I guess.

Where will O'Malley's voters go? Looks like an even split between Sanders and Hillary.

posted by Ace at 06:45 PM

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Only one in three likely Democratic voters in the survey are first-time caucus-goers, who break decidedly toward Sanders. That compares with 60 percent in the final pre-caucus survey of 2008, when a wave of young voters and new participants helped Barack Obama overpower Clinton in Iowa. Sanders needs a surge of new voters to win, I guess. Where will O'Malley's voters go? Looks like an even split between Sanders and Hillary. posted by Ace at 06:45 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "Maral Salmassi @MaralSalmassi Despite claims made ..." jimmymcnulty: "Are Australian pizzas served upside down. Asking ..." Viggo Tarasov: "Hey, that tweezer thing can really pluck someone u ..." Eromero: "322 German police valiantly confiscating a Swiss A ..." 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