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April 20, 2015

Obama's No Good, Stupid Assumptions Underlying His Iran Deal

History in the making kids...I'm going to suggest you read a Vox post in a non-ironic way. It's an interview with Michael Doran who was a member of George W. Bush's NSC staff.

I'll just pull one question and answer but seriously, read the rest.

[Max Fisher]...So then you have this big question mark of what happens if Iran gets caught cheating. It's not just us wondering; the Iranian leaders are surely gaming this out, as well. And I honestly don't feel like I know what the answer is.

Michael Doran: First of all, I thank you for asking the question, because I think it is the crucial question.

The way the president has set this up, he has incentivized Iran to pocket huge benefits up front. This has put them in a position to be able to go for a bomb when they want in a position of much greater economic strength and diplomatic strength. Because the very process of the negotiation is destroying the sanctions regime we established, which is the greatest nonmilitary instrument we have for coercing them. This is the fundamental flaw at the heart of the coercion strategy.

He's going to use his waiver authority to free up all this money that is in escrow accounts across the globe that is going to pour into Iranian coffers nearly immediately. At the same time, the United Nations Security Council is going to bless the agreement, which is then going to free up the Europeans and others, including the Russians and the Chinese, to engage in commercial activity with the Iranians. And so we will have effectively gutted the sanctions regime.

Iran's status in the international community is going to be greatly improved, and then there's going to be an international commercial lobby and a diplomatic-military lobby, which includes the Chinese and the Russians, in favor of the new order in which Iran is a citizen in good standing in the international community that they can do business with.

Bottom line according to Doran is Obama wants to pull back from the Mideast and is setting Iran up as the regional power that will step in and maintain order. I think he's right about this and it's incredibly dangerous and stupid but then, that's Obama.

We tried to reorder the Mideast through regime and society change in Iraq. That didn't work. So yes, we needed to take another swing at it but Obama, either through incompetence or evil intent has stumbled upon the worst possible option.

In what possible world does Obama think the Sunni Arab states of the Gulf and wider region are going to accept a dominant Persian Shia power? Ensuring an Iranian bomb is not a recipe for managing the Mideast, it's taking a torch and throwing it into powder magazine.

There are probably better ways to ensure that a major war in the Mideast breaks out in the near future but I'm having trouble thinking of one.

But Obama is the smartest man in the world or something so I'm sure it'll be fine.


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posted by DrewM. at 11:55 AM

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