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October 15, 2014

Polling News: Gardner Gets 50% in New Poll; Democrats Get Majority Disapproval for First Time in All Polling History

Gardner now is polling at 50%. You know, when a challenger is polling at 50%, it's hard for the incumbent to get 50%.

That's just math right there.

Meanwhile, for the first time in history a major poll has shown Democrats drawing more than 50% unfavorability with the public. (I assume the "major poll" proviso implies that a minor poll has previously found this.)

Allah being Allah, he tells you all the bad news in the poll for the GOP. Like, despite the high levels of disapproval for the Democratic party, the public still thinks the Democrats care more for People Like You.

Oh, and lots of Democrats and even Nate Silver are talking about the possibility that the polls may be "skewed"... in favor of Republicans.

Meanwhile, Democrats have a plausible plan for winning in Colorado, despite the incumbent Mark Uterus being behind. It's the same plan that helped them eke out a 2012 presidential win-- pander ruthlessly to the Democrats' core groups and micro-target unlikely voters who would vote Democrat if you said stupid things to them in an email.

As I say, it's not an implausible theory.

The GOP might have to confront a new reality: That Democrats are actually Better Voters than Republicans, and that we can perhaps expect a reversal of the previous rule that you could shift four points from the Democrat to Republican in a poll to reflect Republicans' higher propensity to turn out.

If the Democrats are both numerous and better at turn out, we are doomed.

There is a brightside, however:

Obama and the CDC have decided to help Ebola kill us all, so, you know, we won't really have to worry about elections too much after that.

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posted by Ace at 04:08 PM

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