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September 15, 2014

Senate Races: NH, Iowa Both Tied

In Iowa, where farmer-insulting Bruce Braley is fighting to keep the senate seat in Democrat hands, Braley has only a 1% advantage over Joni Ernst, making it a statistical tie.

His rival, Joni Ernst, emerged as something of a sensation en route to winning the GOP nomination, but now she, too, is slipping in the polls amid attacks over her stated support for privatizing Social Security and sponsorship of a bill that would outlaw abortion.

With just seven weeks to go, a CNN poll released Friday gave Braley the slimmest of leads over Ernst, 49% to 48%, within the margin of error. It was in line with other surveys that showed the coin-flip race has budged ever so slightly back in his direction.

Polling has usually found an edge for Braley so I'm not sure why the LA Times gives the latest poll the gloss that it's good news for Braley. What I generally assume is that the neutral, objective media gives races the same sort of good-news-for-your-side spin that I do, less out of a desire to deceive and more out of rooting interest in one's party.

Which would be strange, given that the media is supposedly non-partisan, yet behaving exactly like an admitted partisan does.

A few weeks ago a poll put Scott Brown within two points of Jeane Shaheen. Shaheen had been leading by a somewhat comfortable margin in other polls, so there was a question as to whether this was an outlier, or real movement towards Brown.

It seems to be the latter:



Meanwhile, Politico has presidential approval at 44/56 and finds the GOP with a slight lead on immigration.

Allison Lundergan Grimes: I'm Totally Into Guns N Stuff. Pathetic.



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posted by Ace at 11:36 AM

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