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September 07, 2014

Gaming Thread 9/7/2014

Can't remember which day it was last week but I was bored and started to doodle on what games are going to do sales wise this upcoming Holiday season and just kinda consumed me and I've decided to embarrass myself and prove once again, I don't know jack about videogaming (if you haven't picked up on that by now, that's on you). Pretty sure I hit all the main ones (and a few others) but I've undoubtedly ended up missing a few. It's just in my nature

• Personally would have liked to have seen Konami be the first with a new LovePlus game but Bandai Namco and Team Tekken have beaten them to the punch to the future of Japanese gaming


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SONY Pre-TGS Conference

Frankly, that was one of the worse TGS conferences I've seen over the years. Outside of Dragon Quest Heroes, they didn't announce anything that will move consoles in Japan and third parties re-affirmed their non-commitment to the new gen. Sure, some decisions were made to turn stuff into crossgen games to take them West but as a whole, nothing too earth shattering. And devoting over half of the conference to Western games just seems wrong

• SquareEnix just straight up trolled the conference with: We heard you want Dragon Quest on the PS4? Well here is a musou game.

bull; Disappointing that the new Persona 5 trailer has no waifus

• As much as I'm not a huge fan of remakes, Koei announcing a current gen remake of Bladestorm makes me happy as that's a game that deserves a second chance as it was great. Hopefully it comes to the US where it will be overlooked again

Sure, it's cool that remote play is coming to Sony's phones but limiting it to the Z3 line is bad business decision IMO (reminder, I own Sony stock). I don't think many people will do it outside of showing it off but limiting it to certain devices just never goes well.

• NEW YS GAME!!! FAPFAPFAPFAPFAPFAPFAPFAPFAPFAP

• Yep, this is a REmastered edition of Resident Evil REmake from the Gamecube

• Let It Die continues to look dreadful

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OTHER NEWS

So Samsung and Oculus has finally officially announced their project, it's called the Gear VR

This year's Tecmo SuperBowl finally came out.

Ouya without a hope or a prayer as they're trying to get bought. Would just be cheaper for anyone interested to do their own Android console thing

John Skipper (head of ESPN) made a statement about eSports that rustled some jimmies: Its not a sport its a competition. Chess is a competition. Checkers is a competition,

*************************************************

September:

Destiny - It will sell well, think that's a given (even though it's not for me) but I'm very skeptical on it's amount of content. Think this game is gonna live for a month and then peter out with it's only signs of life being based around DLC releases (kinda like WoW) as the game doesn't have compelling multiplayer and with what they've shown and announced, there isn't much end game content.

Disney Infinity: Marvel Super Heroes - Think this is gonna do very well and be the children's game of the Holiday season. Think it will blow away last year's Infinity release just on the simple fact that Marvel properties is hotter than Disney, it has been for awhile. Also throw in it being Marvel and you will have wider older gamer audience.

Fantasy Life - For an anemic release schedule for the 3DS this holiday season, it's slim pickings for stuff to buy. No idea on their expectations but I can see this Rune Factory clone from Level 5 doing pretty good. Maybe not meet the sales from Japan (350K units or so) but nice little release for Nintendo & Level 5.

Sunset Overdrive - Eh, it's getting the Microsoft marketing treatment, the game looks good and it's the third big exclusive for the XBox One. That being said, even with it being helped with being packed with the white console, I'll be surprised if it does more than a million units (not including the white console bundle) if the reviews and word of mouth isn't like perfect 10 territory (which I don't think it will).

FIFA 15 - Don't see how this game doesn't continue being the best money maker for EA. It's not like Konami knows it's ass from it's elbow with the PES series. Also see them easily breaking their $400 million estimate for Ultimate Team sales

Hyrule Warriors - As much as I'm very interested in this game, it's an enigma when it comes to sales. Zelda sells in the west but mosou games bomb here. Mousou games sell okay in Japan but Zelda bombs hard there. Even with the just over 90K sales in Japan after two weeks, I'd be surprised if it hits 600K units worldwide.

Warriors Orochi 3 Ultimate - It's a musou game so no, it's not going to sell.

October

Alien: Isolation - Game is gonna bomb hard. Previews haven't been hot, people still feeling burned from Colonial Marines and it's from Creative Assembly who haven't had a game sell outside of their Total War series. I can see it having a long tail with deep sales on the console but it's not gonna be any sort of knockout for Sega.

Bayonetta 2 - A sequel to a game that didn't sell (even though it's Platinum's best selling game ever) on a console that isn't the demographic for this game. Sad as it is to say, I'll be surprised if beats Wonderful 101's world sales which was just over 100K (shame to as the game was good).

Borderlands: The Pre Sequel! - Expect this to be released on current gen consoles next spring/summer after it bombs hard. Sure, it's a cheaply made stopgap which they can't be expecting any sort of numbers on it but with the way last gen fell off the face of the planet, no way this sells.

Disney Magical World - Of all the worst times to release this Disney themed Animal Crossing, this is probably it. Don't see it getting any sort of traction which is a shame as the import reviews on it from Japan were glowing. It's only chance is to catch on while boys pick up the new Disney Infinity is the sadly under-represented younger girls. That market though has gone strictly mobile over the last 3 -4 years though.

DRIVECLUB - This game is gonna sell okay, wouldn't be surprised at around 2 million copies. That being said, I wouldn't expect it doing well enough to save Evolution Studios from getting the axe after it's long and pro-tracted dev cycle (it was supposed to be a launch game)
.
F1 2014 - Nice to see Codemasters throw a bone to last gen but no, F1 console games starts next year when they release F1 2015

Fantasia: Music Evolved - Body punches to Harmonix continues as no way this sells, even with Disney's marketing behind it. I really like Harmonix but I don't see them living much longer after their Amplitude kickstarter project is released.

Forza Horizon 2 - A game helped by the dearth of racing games in general. Now the 360 version is anyone's guess but I'd be surprised if it doesn't end up close to whatever Driveclub ends up selling. Couple million in sales would not surprise me on the XB1.

Just Dance 2015 - Never understood this game's popularity (it's too easy and mindless, prefer Dance Central) but it's been a decent seller over the years. Last year was down though, moving about 4 million units, will be curious on if that was an outlier or not (typically moves 7-9 million units).

Lords of the Fallen - Could carve out a niche as there isn't a Dark Souls game coming out till BloodBorn next year but I don't think it will sell during the Holiday season. Now in January, I could see it moving a 300K or so after a couple of sales but nothing till then.

Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor - This one should be real interesting to watch. Lord of the Rings tie in doesn't mean anything so it comes down to if anyone wants to skip Assassin's Creed for this. Also going to come down if the timeline and fear mechanic actually works. If nothing else, it's gonna have a real long tail with sales next year. Easily seeing this one being $35-40 on Black Friday.

NBA Live 15 -Live and Let Die damn it. Jesus Bynum died for our sins and has not resurrected.

Project Spark - No idea why this is getting a physical copy and yeah, don't think a starter pack is going to sell. Should do okay digitally but eh.

Samurai Warriors 4 - Musou game so nope lol

Skylanders: Trap Team - Anyone's guess on this. Personally I think this series is on it's downward slope and though adding mobile to it's platforms, it's going to be a down year for it as it battles Disney Infinity and what ever the hell Amiibo ends up being.

Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition - Just because you're "remastering" something doesn't mean it will magically sell unlike it did on the last gen consoles. And it's going to be released in a sea of other new open world games? I smell HUGE sales.

Super Smash Bros. - Barometer has always been Mario Kart and then taking 20% off it's totals. So you're looking at about 2.3m or so units. Can be bumped up if anyone actually cares about using Amiibo in the ways that Nintendo is planning.

The Evil Within - I hope this game succeeds as it looks cool and I like Shinji Mikami but no, this game isn't going to sell as it gets lost in the glut. Mikami hasn't had a hit in 9 years (in sales) and that drought (God Hand and Vanquish really should have sold some units) is going to continue. If it came out like it was originally going to in August, it would have a shot but Halloween won't save it by being sandwiched between some heavy hitters.

November

Assassin's Creed: Rogue - Thankfully Ubisoft is re-using a ton of assets from 4 for this game as this is gonna bomb real hard as the last gen fell off a cliff. I'd be shocked if it doesn't get up-ported in the spring/summer for the current gen consoles and PC to recoup some money.

Assassin's Creed: Unity - Assassin's Creed III's sales isn't happening again. It's gonna stick around it's 8 million copies and they should be happy with it. I guess you could say it might sell even less with last gen game sales in the toilet but still think it's gonna end up around that mark.

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Unlike last year's billion dollar number (shipped bill in copies, sold $800m), I think they're gonna end up coming real close to hitting that number. To be on the safe side, I'll say $825m in sales for the first week though I wouldn't be surprised in it getting damn close to $900m
Dragon Age: Inquisition - Not matter how they're trying to build it up, it doesn't cross 4m units. It's an increase from the first game (Dragon Age 2 does not exist, not even in sales)

Escape Dead Island - Dead Island was not a hot selling game even after that great initial trailer. The standalone expansion pack was even worse. Throw in a last gen only game and no way this sells well at all. If it makes it to half of the sales of the first game, I'll be surprised. On a side note, I think next year's Dead Island 2 is going to sell even worse than this game (sequel no one asked for made by a company that hasn't shown any life in knowing how to do decent gameplay nor how to write a game)

Far Cry 4 - Always a shocker or two in the Holiday rush and if I was a betting man (which I am), this is the game I think will seriously under-perform. Nothing really to back it up either, just a gut feeling (like everything else in the list) that this game sells only maybe 2/3 of Far Cry 3 (it would still put it at about 6.5m units). Just think this is going to get lost in the shuffle as they're more and more appealing games for the mass consumer market. I'm totally laying down a marker on being totally clueless.

Grand Theft Auto V - Will it sell? Sure. Will it sell enough for poor ass Take Two? Nope. Anything over 7m units will be a miracle. Game didn't have much life on the last gen consoles and the multi is still crap. Take Two is a mirage who is only alive because of Rockstar North decides to release a game every few years.

Halo: The Master Chief Collection - Total number is anyone's guess even with guesses being tempered with instal base as it depends on what kind of deals are happening for Christmas. At this point, I think guessing the attach rate is a better barometer which wouldn't make me surprised at seeing something crazy like 60%. It's Halo, it's early gen where most people owning an Xbox One would be in the wheelhouse of owning it.

LEGO Batman 3: Beyond Gotham - vOv

LittleBigPlanet 3 - First game did great, selling 4.5m units WW. Second game bombed in comparison with maybe a 1-1.5m units. Europe eats this series up depends on where this ends up on the spectrum between those two games. It should do better than the second game, maybe not much better but you would expect it to at least do slightly better.

Pokemon Alpha Sapphire - They're remakes so they shouldn't sell say, X & Y numbers (12m WW, just over 4m US) but I wouldn't be surprised if they start edging 11m WW.
Pokemon Omega Ruby - They're remakes so they shouldn't sell say, X & Y numbers (12m WW, just over 4m US) but I wouldn't be surprised if they start edging 11m WW.

Pro Evolution Soccer 2015 - Even if it is painful of the joy the past games have given people, Konami should just let this series die.

Project CARS - It will do all right on the PC as there is a current hole for a not too sim but not too arcadey racing game and it looks great visually. As for consoles, I wouldn't be surprised if it makes the money back for porting it to the XB1 and PS4 but that's about all I see it doing as it's the third choice for a racing game but it doesn't have an "it" factor to drag along console gamers. Throw in the currently messed up racing wheel market on the current gen consoles and I don't see it doing that hot.

Shape Up - Sure, it's minigame focused but it's still fitness for Kinect and Microsoft kinda killed that genre with Xbox Fitness. This is gonna be the last fitness game from Ubisoft for the Kinect as it clogs the bargain bins.

Sonic Boom: Rise of Lyric - In Sega's brilliant wisdom, they decided to pawn off the rotting corpse that is the Sonic The Hedgehog franchise to an unproven American team. And wait, there's more: they're making TWO games. We get to find out how low Sonic can go.

Sonic Boom: Shattered Crystal - In Sega's brilliant wisdom, they decided to pawn off the rotting corpse that is the Sonic The Hedgehog franchise to an unproven American team. And wait, there's more: they're making TWO games. We get to find out how low Sonic can go.

Tales of Hearts R - Remake of Tales of Hearts on the Vita. Hopefully Namco isn't doing a large run on it.

The Crew - lol

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NEW RELEASES

Destiny kicks off the gamut of gaming for the next two months.

Destiny (360, PS3, PS4, XB1) - Didn't like the beta but this game is gonna sell gangbusters. I am curious on player retention though. Wish reviewers were getting the game before Monday to give me a clue on the amount of content it's shipping with. That live action trailer from Joesph Kosinski (Tron Legacy & Oblivion) is pretty good even when using a "song" from the most over rated band of all-time (yes, even more over-rated than the Beetles)

NHL15 (360, PS3, PS4, XB1) - No, just no. The game is real bad and it's missing so many features compared to the last few. It's even missing online team play, the main reason to actually buy the damn game. It's akin to first Madden games on a new console. At the very least, play the demo before you make up your mind on if you're going to buy it.

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STUFF I'VE BEEN PLAYING

Mainly have been playing Dance Central Spotlight which has shown me that I've really been slacking with my cardio. Only being able to do 5-6 in a row before I need a smoke break is not good. That being said, I like the improvements of the new one. The routines are pretty good once you start opening up the harder ones and the Workout routines are really good & gets me in a sweat. Hope they keep up the DLC releases. Couple of songs every other week would be really cool. Worth the $10


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posted by Gang of Gaming Morons! at 03:41 PM

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