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July 27, 2014

AOSHQDD: NYT/CBS/YouGov Poll (A biggie)

There has been a serious lull in non-partisan polling across a mass of competitive races this year, and it looks like the folks at The Upshot/NYT have been determined to remedy this. They, CBS, and YouGov teamed up to do a massive survey of tens of thousands of voters, covering every Senatorial, Gubernatorial, and Congressional race.
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Per YouGov/CBS/NYT, here is a rundown of races we have been watching:
[State(current party holding) Candidate LEADS Candidate %-%]
SD(D)-Rounds (R) leads Weiland (D) 61%-34%
MT(D)-Daines (R) leads The Plagiarist (D) 56%-40%
MS(R)-Cochran (r) leads Childers (D) 47%-33%
WV(D)-Capito (R) leads Tennant (D) 51%-43%
GA(R)-Perdue (R) leads Nunn (D) 50%-44%
KY(R)-McConnell (R) leads Grimes (D) 50%-46%
AR(D)-Cotton (R) leads Pryor (D) 50%-46%
MI(D)- Land (R) leads Peters (D) 48%-47%
LA(D)- Cassidy (R) leads Landrieu (D) 47%-46%
IA(D)- Ernst (R) leads Braley (D) 48%-47%
NC(D)- Tillis (R) leads Hagan (D) 48%-47%
AK(D)- competitive R primary, two tests
---Begich (D) leads Treadwell (R) 47%-45%, leads Sullivan(R) 49%-37%
CO(D)- Udall (D) leads Gardner (R) 51%-47%
NM (D)- Udall (D) leads Weh (R) 52%-44%
VA (D)- Warner (D) leads Gillespie (R) 53%-43%
NH (D)- Shaheen (D) leads Brown (R) 52%-42%
MN (D)- Franken (D) leads McFadden (R) 55%-41%
OR (D)- Merkley (D) leads Wehby (R) 55%-41%

Overall Senate: 53-47 R
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I will be posting the rest of the numbers for the hot ones when the full data dump is released, but Nate Cohn ran down the critical ones in the Senate, along with a general House snapshot and the state of the governor races:

The panel also asked respondents about their preferences in House races, and Republicans seem overwhelmingly likely to retain control. The YouGov data suggests that Republicans have leads in 240 House races; they currently hold 234 House seats. Republicans lead by at least 8 points in 220 seats, more than the 218 needed for a majority.

The panel also offers bleak news for Democrats in the competitive gubernatorial races, where Democrats are tied in Colorado and trail by at least two points in Illinois, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Connecticut, Georgia and Arkansas.

The gubernatorial numbers are the ones I'm most looking forward to.

Updated
Governor numbers per Cohn:


The biggest upside to these surveys: these voters will be contacted again and again through the cycle, so we can have an apples-to-apples comparison of the vote.

Update again
Full survey results for gubernatorial and senatorial races can be found here (opens as a spreadsheet).


digg this
posted by CAC at 01:17 PM

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