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April 29, 2014

Obama Hits New Job-Approval Low in WaPo/ABC Poll; Public Says They'd Prefer a Republican Congress to Check Obama's Power

41%. He's been down to 39 and 38 in other polls, but not this low in the Post/ABC poll.

Obama’s approval rating fell to 41 percent, down from 46 percent through the first three months of the year and the lowest of his presidency in Post-ABC News polls. Just 42 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 37 percent approve of how he is handling the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and 34 percent approve of his handling of the situation involving Ukraine and Russia.

...

The Post-ABC poll found that 44 percent say they support the law while 48 percent say they oppose it, which is about where it was at the end of last year and in January. Half of all Americans also say they think implementation is worse than expected.

Last month, a Post-ABC poll found 49 percent of Americans saying they supported the new law compared with 48 percent who opposed it. That finding was more positive for the administration than most other polls at the time. Democrats saw it as a possible leading indicator of a shift in public opinion, but that has not materialized.

Yes, it was an outlier and a bad poll. They seem incapable of admitting the obvious.

It was actually pretty obvious at the time, too.

Pessimism about the economy also persists, with more than seven in 10 describing the economy in negative terms. Public attitudes about the future of the economy are anything but rosy. Just 28 percent say they think the economy is getting better, while 36 percent say it is getting worse and 35 percent say it’s staying the same.

...

Among registered voters, 45 percent intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in House elections this fall, and 44 percent for the Republican candidate. Based on past elections, that close margin is troubling news for Democrats. Shortly before they lost control of the House in 2010, Democrats held a five-point advantage on this question.

Another measure of voting intentions came when people were asked whether they thought it was more important to have Democrats in charge in Congress to help support Obama’s policies or Republicans in charge to act as a check on the president’s policies. On this, 53 percent of voters say Republicans and 39 percent say Democrats. That is almost identical to the results of the same question when it was asked in September 2010, two months before the GOP landslide.

Democrats still have an edge on their handling of many issues, surprisingly (and regrettably) enough.

Where they kill us, though, is on the Shares My Values type questions:


Where Democrats have the biggest advantages are on the same contrasts that helped Obama win reelection in 2012 — indicators of which party voters believe is on their side. By 52 to 32 percent, those surveyed say they trust Democrats to do a better job helping the middle class, and by 55 to 25 percent, they trust Democrats on issues that are especially important to women.

I'm starting to fear that the public likes the Democrat plan, just not the execution.

There's some long-range upside there, as the Democrats' failure to execute their plan is not just one of managerial incompetence; you just can't tax and spend your way to prosperity.

But that could take a decade for the dumb, shallow-thinking American public to grasp.

The public has good reason to disapprove of Obama's alleged "recovery." It's awful.

he current job market recovery has been an historically slow one. It was only in March that private-sector employment surpassed its former peak reached in January 2008, or 51 months from its February 2010 nadir. During the 1981-82 recession by contrast, it took private-sector employment just 10 month to surpass its old high. If the current jobs recovery had been as robust as the ones during the Reagan and Clinton years, we would have around 6 million more private-sector jobs right now.

But the problem isn’t just the quantity of jobs created, but the quality, too. From an updated study by the National Employment Law Project (and see [below] chart):

We find that during the labor market downturn (measured from January 2008 to February 2010), employment losses occurred throughout the economy, but were concentrated in mid-wage and higher-wage industries. By contrast, during the recovery (measured from February 2010 to February 2014), employment gains have been concentrated in lower-wage industries. Specifically:

– Lower-wage industries constituted 22 percent of recession losses, but 44 percent of recovery growth.

– Mid-wage industries constituted 37 percent of recession losses, but only 26 percent of recovery growth.

– Higher-wage industries constituted 41 percent of recession losses, and 30 percent of recovery growth.

Today, there are nearly two million fewer jobs in mid-and higher-wage industries than there were before the recession took hold, while there are 1.85 million more jobs in lower-wage industries. Service-providing industries such as food services and drinking places, administrative and support services, and retail trade have led private sector job growth during the recovery. These industries, which pay relatively low wages, accounted for 39 percent of the private sector employment increase over the past four years.



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posted by Ace at 03:14 PM

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