Sponsored Content
« Late Morning Open Thread: Government Troll Edition [Y-not] | Main | Food Thread: Special Addition -- Craft Beer [CBD & Beerslinger] »
March 01, 2014

Crimea, and another stunning US Intelligence failure-[XBradTC]

Incredibly, US intelligence thought Russia wouldn’t occupy (or make an unopposed arrival) Crimea.

U.S. intelligence estimates conclude that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. This, despite the launch of a massive, new Russian military exercise near Ukraine’s border and moves from armed men to seize two key airports in the country's Crimea region.

The latest developments led Ukraine's interior minister Arsen Avakov Friday to accuse Russia of invading the Russian majority province of Crimea after armed militias took control of the civilian airport in Simferopol, the region's capital and the military airport in Sevastopol, where Russia's Black Sea fleet is based. Russian authorities meanwhile have denied any responsibility for the seizure of the two airports in the region.

Really? When the “cease fire” in Kiev between the Yanukovych regime and the protesters was announced, the first thing most people noticed was that it was due to expire the day the Winter Olympics ended. Smart money around the blogs was that as soon as the spotlight was off Sochi, Russian forces would intervene, in one manner or another.

Given the large ethnic Russian population in Crimea, and the critical Russian bases on the peninsula, the only question was (and still is) will the Russians be content with just Crimea, or will they attempt to retake all of Ukraine?

Actually, make no doubt, Russia will attempt to retake all of Ukraine. We doubt they will do so through military occupation (though a ginned up emergency is hardly out of the question), but though economic and political coercion. Russia (especially Putin, but a goodly percentage of the  man-on-the-street population as well) simply cannot conceive of a Ukraine that falls outside the Russian sphere of influence.

How is it that our intelligence community has such an incredibly poor grasp of history and culture that they cannot see that which is plainly before them? What was to stop Russia from entering Crimea? The Russians knew that they would be, if not welcomed with open arms, almost certainly unopposed. Heck, the Russians already occupied Crimea, with military installations shared with the Ukrainians. What possible downside did Russia see? None.

We’ve been pretty unimpressed with the Obama administration’s response, but frankly, we see little that the US could do to prevent any such Russian response. Having said that, the inability of the US intelligence community to see the obvious is deeply troubling.

Crossposted at my place.

digg this
posted by Open Blogger at 11:23 AM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
[/i][/b]andycanuck (Vwz3I)[/s][/u]: "That's a good hypothesis. Dust explosions are dang ..."

CN: "This guy is fantastic!! I will now follow him (not ..."

pawn (in/lbs/gal/F): "I worked for a while with an engineer who was a wh ..."

Theodore: "Great. Now I'll have that "Somebody That I Used To ..."

runner: ""National Geographic reveals in its most recent is ..."

[/i][/b]andycanuck (Vwz3I)[/s][/u]: "Palmer Chocolates, according to repliers. ..."

Rodrigo Borgia: "> Any experience with molds and molten metal? >> ..."

Tiffany Dover died on national TV and people still lined up for the shots: "Commenter suggests confectioner sugar explosion. ..."

[/i][/b]andycanuck (Vwz3I)[/s][/u]: "#274 Two dead and nine missing the last report I s ..."

Skip: "vmom you will have to wait for the Hobby Thread to ..."

Javems: "253 Growing up as a military brat, we didn't see s ..."

[/i][/b]andycanuck (Vwz3I)[/s][/u]: ""blown" ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64