I Love You, Government, Part II: The Official Weather Forecast Failed to Predict a Tough Winter

Prediction is a tough thing.

I don't really think it's terrible that government meteorologists failed to predict how tough, cold, and snowy this Global Warmening winter would be. Predicting the future, like hitting a curveball, is hard.

But, of course: I'm a bit skeptical when they move straight from one near-term failed prediction to a long-term prediction, also failed, at least for the last 17 years, and tell me "Serious You Guys you have to trust on this, the Science is Settled."

Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. This graphic shows just how wrong the official forecast of the U.S. government was:

I don't even know what the hell this means
but this article says it's all f***ed up and its sh*t's all r****ded

The big red blotch in the top map represents parts of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center forecast above-average temperatures. The frigid-looking blue blotch in the bottom “verification” map shows areas where temperatures turned out to be below average.

“Not one of our better forecasts,” admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center’s acting director.

...

Climatologists are trying to use their big miss this winter as a learning experience.

...

Oh that's lovely, I was wondering when they would.

I didn't quote a part of the article that notes that the accuracy of weather predictions is rated on a scale running from -50 to +100. Yeah I know, whatever. Well, the prediction about the first half of winter scored a -22 or -23.

For the latter half, they're now nearly "zero-ish" in terms of accuracy. So, big win on that big goose-egg.

posted by Ace at 02:21 PM

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