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January 28, 2014
Que Será, Será : How I Screwed Up 2012 (and Plan to Fix That)This is a post that is long-overdue, and one I felt I owed the readers & cobs of Ace of Spades HQ along with the Ewok himself. I warn that it is a very long read, and I implore you to read it as seriously as I wrote it. It's the rare instance of someone publicly admitting how badly they screwed up, so ready your pillowcases-filled-with-soap, and dive in. I take the election-related work I contribute here seriously. I felt a great sense of responsibility when Ace asked me to co-blog with a focus on elections and polling back in 2010, because I had been given an opportunity to do something I've always had a passion for. Everything I've managed to do since he gave me the keys is a direct result of that opportunity. I have a day job, art, and the stars, but the interest closest to my heart (besides my wife) has been elections. This opportunity- blathering about them and having people, some of whom are very influential, take you seriously- is enormously important to me. So, this has been in the back of my mind for nearly fifteen months, and I touched on it in the comments late last week: The general election, election night in particular, burned me to the core. I had spent months slowly networking a rag-tag group to do a live coverage thing for the blog intended to rival the AP's, much like what we did for the recall. John Ekdahl created a fabulously simple interactive map, did his computer magic so it would be easy for a hundred volunteers to update it live. Many were expecting a better night. Certainly anyone who had read what I had written throughout that cycle would have. From that point forward, a post here about elections by me wasn't going to draw any new attention to the blog. It was going to draw eye-rolling and jokes. So I want to talk about the election call I completely fucked up. For one, my partisan leanings took over and blinded me to the numbers right before my eyes, insisting instead to look at anecdotes and the questionable nature of some firms. Some pollsters deserved greater scrutiny, even if some of their final numbers were impressive. Nate Cohn, formerly of The New Republic, eviscerated one such pollster for not having much of a consistent methodology in a great set of reads here, here, here, and here. But while it is true some pollsters probably posted misleading numbers here and there, and some have questionable methodologies, the averages of the polls aren't generally affected by one or two bad apples. Take a look at the final averages for the swing states in 2012 per RCP: VA Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 0.3 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 3.9 PA Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 3.8 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 5.4 MN Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 6.0 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 7.7 WI Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 4.2 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 6.9 FL Poll Avg Winner: Romney Margin: 1.5 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: .9 NH Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 2.0 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 5.6 NV Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 2.8 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 6.7 MI Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 4.0 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 9.5 IA Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 2.4 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 5.8 NC Poll Avg Winner: Romney Margin: 3 Actual Winner: Romney Margin: 2 CO Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 1.5 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 5.4 NM Poll Avg Winner: Obama Margin: 10 Actual Winner: Obama Margin: 10.2 While most averages deviated from the margin won, all found the correct winner, with the exception of the Florida polls. Using JUST polling averages alone, you could have assumed Romney to gain only North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida as his consolation prizes, losing to Obama 235-303 (he actually lost Florida too, losing the EV by a grand total of 206-332). The simplest method of predicting- sourcing data gathered by various firms- will accurately predict the winner of the overall race. It was true in 2012 as it has been in all general elections in recent memory. Tweeking this, you can weigh polls based on the past-performance of the company releasing them, or the sample size, and perhaps get even closer to the margins (or nail all fifty states, like Nate Silver manged to do). My biggest mistake was looking at the polls, disbelieving the D+x breakdown, and jumping on the "skewed" bandwagon. If I had simply gone with the tried-and-true, I would have been roared at for not believing in Romney pre-election, and would have been ribbed for missing Florida after, but I would have been right. When it comes to elections, polls, and all that encircles that stuff, accuracy is the gauge by which we judge forecasters. I deserve every punch I've gotten in comments, on twitter, and in the hundreds of emails from distraught regulars asking me how I could blow it so badly (I really wish I was exaggerating that last bit). To those who referenced my work, who followed along, and who believed it, I'm sorry. So, here's what I'm keeping in mind to avoid this. 1- Polls Uber Alles. Polls are the best indicator we have for how A living in B feels about X at time Y. "My cousin says" and "I heard" are as plentiful as cat turds and just as useful. Yes, some firms can be screwy. Yes, others can put their thumb on the scales. But the averages of the polls rarely deviate from the winner of the race that was inquired about. Democrats shoved their fingers in their ears as Governor Scott Walker consistently led in every public poll released, and we did the same as the close of the 2012 cycle approached us. 2- In the absence of polls, consider other data. Let me give you an example: 3- When polls become plentiful, all other factors will take a back-seat. 4- You may be partisan, but the averaged data, piling as the months pass, is not. 5- Properly weight the polls within the averages, but only if necessary. A lot of guesswork is involved here, because a firm that has a great year in, say, 2008, can have a shit one in 2012 (see Rasmussen). Weighting releases in the averages solely on the track record of the company needs to account regular auditing of polling firms' findings versus results. If a pollster has had a string of bad results after a period of good ones, it's fair to include them in an average, but handicap them. If however they've had a flood of terribly off releases, eliminate them all together. Comparing polls using different kinds of electorates: likely, registered, or "all adults", is a no-no, unless you don't really have a solid quantity of all of the same kind. Lastly, weighing a poll based on the sample size makes sense, so long as the margin of error per release is also taken into account. 6- For This Midterm, Do Not Discount the "Presidential Penalty" (or "Midterm Penalty as it is more commonly known). . At midterm, the president's party always performs poorly-even The sole exceptions to "every" has been extraordinary circumstances involving either explosive economic growth (1998), a perceived dramatic improvement in the economy (1934), or war-time support (2002), none of which are happening this year. This will happen this year, the question is simply how large will the Presidential penalty be. 7. Take in all good points raised by other analysts, rather than rejecting the ones you don't like. My goal has been to provide accurate, reliable calls. The 2012 Wisconsin Recall was a high point for me, followed just five months later with a low. I'd like to take the time to thank all of those who volunteered and contributed to the AOSHQDD throughout 2012, even on the tough night of hell in November. Lastly, I'd like to thank Ace for continuing to allow me to do my thing here, even when I screwed up royally in the last go-round. There are very, very few accurate "election gurus" on the right. I want to regain the trust of those I lost in last cycle's botch, and realize I'll have to earn it by making accurate calls. So, here's my promise to all the loyal readers of the AOSHQ: regardless the "good" or "bad" result I am seeing, it will be projected, and as accurately as possible. Whatever will be, will be. | Recent Comments
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